The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Esito proposto: No
Contestato
Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Apr 28 2026
Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled; market fully
The final event is the FOMC meeting itself, where the market expects the Fed to hold rates steady, resolving the market question.
Apr 22 2026
JPMorgan Global Research and other analysts forecast the Fed will remain on hold at the April 28-29 meeting amid inflation risks and labor market strength
No change rises to 100%1%
Analyst consensus and market positioning ahead of the April meeting solidified the expectation of no rate change.
Mar 18 2026
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers
25+ bps increase dips to 0%3%
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers saw rates needing to move higher by the end of this year,” effectively eliminating the 25‑bp hike scenario. This pushed the outcome’s
Mar 18 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in March meeting, projecting higher inflation and steady unemployment, signaling a single rate cut later in the year but not imminently
No change jumps to 96%10%
The March FOMC statement confirmed a hold, significantly boosting the "No change" outcome.
Mar 12 2026
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in
50+ bps decrease dips to 0%2%
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in April
Feb 14 2026
Market expectations for a December rate cut diminish further as Fed officials express doubts, and economic data shows steady but cautious growth
No change jumps to 86%11%
The fading probability of cuts and steady economic indicators pushed the "No change"
Jan 16 2026
January CPI data reveals softer core inflation and mixed economic signals;
50+ bps decrease dips to 2%1%
Fed expected to pause rate cuts due to tariff-related inflation pressures and modest labor market improvements, reducing odds of large cuts
Jan 14 2026
Fed officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, advocate holding rates steady due to persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations of no change in upcoming meetings
No change jumps to 69%6%
Public remarks from Fed officials supporting a pause strengthened market conviction for no rate change.
Dec 11 2025
Fed signals pause on rate cuts after three consecutive reductions, emphasizing the need for clearer economic data and highlighting internal policy divisions
No change jumps to 61%14%
The Fed's communication about pausing cuts amid data gaps and leadership changes increased confidence in a hold scenario.
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points but signals a likely pause on further cuts as inflation remains elevated and economic data is unclear
No change plunges to 47%17%
Despite the cut, the Fed's cautious tone and data uncertainty led to a temporary drop in the "No change"
Dec 10 2025
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause
25+ bps increase drops to 6%10%
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause further reductions”. The cut removed the need for a near‑term hike, driving the
Nov 21 2025
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient
50+ bps decrease drops to 8%9%
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient consumer spending
Nov 20 2025
FOMC minutes reveal a divided committee with a growing consensus to keep rates steady at 3.75%-4.00%, frustrating White House calls for deeper cuts
No change jumps to 64%6%
The minutes indicated a shift toward holding rates steady, boosting the "No change" outcome probability.
Nov 18 2025
Fed officials remain divided on December rate decision amid inflation concerns and data disruptions, with some governors pushing for cuts and others advocating caution
No change dips to 58%3%
The division within the Fed created uncertainty, causing a dip in the "No change"
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, but signals uncertainty about further cuts amid sticky inflation and divided Fed views
No change rises to 61%3%
This event marked the start of market reassessment of the likelihood of further cuts, tempering earlier high expectations for a December cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Esito proposto: No
Contestato
Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The Federal Open Market Committee's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%—a unanimous consensus among traders reflected in Polymarket's 100% implied probability for no change—stems from elevated inflation pressures, with March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year amid a 10.9% energy surge driven by Middle East tensions, offsetting modest labor market softening evidenced by 4.3% unemployment and low jobless claims near 219,000. Solid economic expansion further supported holding steady, despite internal dissent including one vote for a 25 bps cut and three opposing an easing bias. Upcoming April CPI on May 12 and the next FOMC meeting could signal shifts if data deviates sharply.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Apr 28 2026
Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled; market fully
The final event is the FOMC meeting itself, where the market expects the Fed to hold rates steady, resolving the market question.
Apr 22 2026
JPMorgan Global Research and other analysts forecast the Fed will remain on hold at the April 28-29 meeting amid inflation risks and labor market strength
No change rises to 100%1%
Analyst consensus and market positioning ahead of the April meeting solidified the expectation of no rate change.
Mar 18 2026
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers
25+ bps increase dips to 0%3%
Fed holds rates steady, projects higher inflation and rules out hikes through year‑end – In the March 2026 statement the Fed kept the policy range unchanged and “no policymakers saw rates needing to move higher by the end of this year,” effectively eliminating the 25‑bp hike scenario. This pushed the outcome’s
Mar 18 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in March meeting, projecting higher inflation and steady unemployment, signaling a single rate cut later in the year but not imminently
No change jumps to 96%10%
The March FOMC statement confirmed a hold, significantly boosting the "No change" outcome.
Mar 12 2026
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in
50+ bps decrease dips to 0%2%
Fed officials emphasize data dependency and caution amid resilient economic activity and inflation near target, leading markets to further lower expectations for a 50+ bps cut in April
Feb 14 2026
Market expectations for a December rate cut diminish further as Fed officials express doubts, and economic data shows steady but cautious growth
No change jumps to 86%11%
The fading probability of cuts and steady economic indicators pushed the "No change"
Jan 16 2026
January CPI data reveals softer core inflation and mixed economic signals;
50+ bps decrease dips to 2%1%
Fed expected to pause rate cuts due to tariff-related inflation pressures and modest labor market improvements, reducing odds of large cuts
Jan 14 2026
Fed officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins, advocate holding rates steady due to persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations of no change in upcoming meetings
No change jumps to 69%6%
Public remarks from Fed officials supporting a pause strengthened market conviction for no rate change.
Dec 11 2025
Fed signals pause on rate cuts after three consecutive reductions, emphasizing the need for clearer economic data and highlighting internal policy divisions
No change jumps to 61%14%
The Fed's communication about pausing cuts amid data gaps and leadership changes increased confidence in a hold scenario.
Dec 10 2025
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points but signals a likely pause on further cuts as inflation remains elevated and economic data is unclear
No change plunges to 47%17%
Despite the cut, the Fed's cautious tone and data uncertainty led to a temporary drop in the "No change"
Dec 10 2025
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause
25+ bps increase drops to 6%10%
Fed cuts rates to 3.5‑3.75% and signals pause on further easing – The FOMC’s December meeting lowered the target range by 25 bps and, per Reuters, “signaled it would likely pause further reductions”. The cut removed the need for a near‑term hike, driving the
Nov 21 2025
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient
50+ bps decrease drops to 8%9%
New York Fed President John Williams signals potential for near-term rate cut, raising market expectations for December easing amid slightly cooler inflation data and resilient consumer spending
Nov 20 2025
FOMC minutes reveal a divided committee with a growing consensus to keep rates steady at 3.75%-4.00%, frustrating White House calls for deeper cuts
No change jumps to 64%6%
The minutes indicated a shift toward holding rates steady, boosting the "No change" outcome probability.
Nov 18 2025
Fed officials remain divided on December rate decision amid inflation concerns and data disruptions, with some governors pushing for cuts and others advocating caution
No change dips to 58%3%
The division within the Fed created uncertainty, causing a dip in the "No change"
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time, reducing the benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00%, but signals uncertainty about further cuts amid sticky inflation and divided Fed views
No change rises to 61%3%
This event marked the start of market reassessment of the likelihood of further cuts, tempering earlier high expectations for a December cut.
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Domande frequenti
"Decisione della Fed ad aprile?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 4 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Nessun cambiamento" a 100%, seguito da "Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base" a 0%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?" ha generato $284.2 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 13, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?", esplora i 4 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
L'attuale favorito per "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?" è "Nessun cambiamento" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base" a 0%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.
Le regole di risoluzione per "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $284.2 million scambiati su "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 100¢ per "Nessun cambiamento" nel mercato "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 100% che "Nessun cambiamento" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 100¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 0¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?" è stato risolto. Il risultato finale è stato determinato e il mercato non è più aperto al trading. Puoi comunque consultare le quote storiche, le probabilità degli esiti e i commenti su questa pagina per vedere come si sono evolute le previsioni nel tempo.
Il mercato "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?" ha una comunità attiva di 8,172 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "Decisione della Fed ad aprile?". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
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Domande frequenti