Recent inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the Federal Reserve’s June and July meetings. With the benchmark federal funds rate already at 3.5%–3.75% following the April pause, hotter-than-expected CPI prints and elevated oil prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a sustained hold, eliminating near-term easing from futures pricing. The strong 93% consensus for three consecutive pauses reflects this data trajectory and the Fed’s focus on inflation risks over labor-market softening. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming employment or retail-sales releases could reopen cut probabilities, though current momentum suggests the hold path remains the dominant baseline through midsummer.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.5%
Other 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$49,000 Vol.
$49,000 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.5%
Other 3.1%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.0%
$49,000 Vol.
$49,000 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,596 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 Vol.
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,620 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,595 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the Federal Reserve’s June and July meetings. With the benchmark federal funds rate already at 3.5%–3.75% following the April pause, hotter-than-expected CPI prints and elevated oil prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a sustained hold, eliminating near-term easing from futures pricing. The strong 93% consensus for three consecutive pauses reflects this data trajectory and the Fed’s focus on inflation risks over labor-market softening. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming employment or retail-sales releases could reopen cut probabilities, though current momentum suggests the hold path remains the dominant baseline through midsummer.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$49,000Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the Federal Reserve’s June and July meetings. With the benchmark federal funds rate already at 3.5%–3.75% following the April pause, hotter-than-expected CPI prints and elevated oil prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a sustained hold, eliminating near-term easing from futures pricing. The strong 93% consensus for three consecutive pauses reflects this data trajectory and the Fed’s focus on inflation risks over labor-market softening. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming employment or retail-sales releases could reopen cut probabilities, though current momentum suggests the hold path remains the dominant baseline through midsummer.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$49,000Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy at the Federal Reserve’s June and July meetings. With the benchmark federal funds rate already at 3.5%–3.75% following the April pause, hotter-than-expected CPI prints and elevated oil prices have shifted market-implied odds toward a sustained hold, eliminating near-term easing from futures pricing. The strong 93% consensus for three consecutive pauses reflects this data trajectory and the Fed’s focus on inflation risks over labor-market softening. A sharp downside surprise in upcoming employment or retail-sales releases could reopen cut probabilities, though current momentum suggests the hold path remains the dominant baseline through midsummer.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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