Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, supporting the 68.5% implied probability of no increase. April CPI and PPI readings exceeded forecasts, with core measures elevated amid energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions, prompting officials such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins to note that tighter policy may be required to reach the 2% target. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting, while CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 71% odds of holding through year-end. Upcoming May inflation data and June FOMC deliberations remain key catalysts that could shift the rate path if price pressures moderate or labor conditions weaken.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,100,808 Vol.
$1,100,808 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sì
$1,100,808 Vol.
$1,100,808 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, supporting the 68.5% implied probability of no increase. April CPI and PPI readings exceeded forecasts, with core measures elevated amid energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions, prompting officials such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins to note that tighter policy may be required to reach the 2% target. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting, while CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 71% odds of holding through year-end. Upcoming May inflation data and June FOMC deliberations remain key catalysts that could shift the rate path if price pressures moderate or labor conditions weaken.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,100,808Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, supporting the 68.5% implied probability of no increase. April CPI and PPI readings exceeded forecasts, with core measures elevated amid energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions, prompting officials such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins to note that tighter policy may be required to reach the 2% target. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting, while CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 71% odds of holding through year-end. Upcoming May inflation data and June FOMC deliberations remain key catalysts that could shift the rate path if price pressures moderate or labor conditions weaken.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,100,808Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, supporting the 68.5% implied probability of no increase. April CPI and PPI readings exceeded forecasts, with core measures elevated amid energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions, prompting officials such as Boston Fed President Susan Collins to note that tighter policy may be required to reach the 2% target. The federal funds rate remains steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April FOMC meeting, while CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 71% odds of holding through year-end. Upcoming May inflation data and June FOMC deliberations remain key catalysts that could shift the rate path if price pressures moderate or labor conditions weaken.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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