Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid balanced risks. The March dot plot median projects 3.4% by year-end, envisioning no hikes and possibly one 25-basis-point cut, consistent with inflation's gradual disinflation trajectory toward 2%. Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with unemployment at 4.3% have lifted hike odds to 37% in bond futures and prediction markets, signaling reacceleration concerns. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI data will be pivotal catalysts for any sentiment shift.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,093,175 Vol.
$1,093,175 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sì
$1,093,175 Vol.
$1,093,175 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid balanced risks. The March dot plot median projects 3.4% by year-end, envisioning no hikes and possibly one 25-basis-point cut, consistent with inflation's gradual disinflation trajectory toward 2%. Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with unemployment at 4.3% have lifted hike odds to 37% in bond futures and prediction markets, signaling reacceleration concerns. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI data will be pivotal catalysts for any sentiment shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,093,175Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid balanced risks. The March dot plot median projects 3.4% by year-end, envisioning no hikes and possibly one 25-basis-point cut, consistent with inflation's gradual disinflation trajectory toward 2%. Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with unemployment at 4.3% have lifted hike odds to 37% in bond futures and prediction markets, signaling reacceleration concerns. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI data will be pivotal catalysts for any sentiment shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,093,175Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 62.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, anchored by the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote amid balanced risks. The March dot plot median projects 3.4% by year-end, envisioning no hikes and possibly one 25-basis-point cut, consistent with inflation's gradual disinflation trajectory toward 2%. Recent hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—and nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 with unemployment at 4.3% have lifted hike odds to 37% in bond futures and prediction markets, signaling reacceleration concerns. The June FOMC meeting and May CPI data will be pivotal catalysts for any sentiment shift.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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