Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept oil prices elevated and core PCE inflation above the Fed’s 2% target at 3.3% as of June 2026, supporting arguments for at least one 25-basis-point hike this year and creating balanced trader sentiment around the 50.5% implied probability of no rate increase. Counterbalancing this, July’s softer employment data and the Fed’s unanimous hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through mid-August have reinforced expectations of policy restraint. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over whether supply shocks will prove transitory or require tighter monetary policy. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with updated dot plot projections, along with the next CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift market-implied odds decisively.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
50% probabilità
$7,686,009 Vol.
$7,686,009 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
50% probabilità
$7,686,009 Vol.
$7,686,009 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept oil prices elevated and core PCE inflation above the Fed’s 2% target at 3.3% as of June 2026, supporting arguments for at least one 25-basis-point hike this year and creating balanced trader sentiment around the 50.5% implied probability of no rate increase. Counterbalancing this, July’s softer employment data and the Fed’s unanimous hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through mid-August have reinforced expectations of policy restraint. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over whether supply shocks will prove transitory or require tighter monetary policy. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with updated dot plot projections, along with the next CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift market-implied odds decisively.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,686,009Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept oil prices elevated and core PCE inflation above the Fed’s 2% target at 3.3% as of June 2026, supporting arguments for at least one 25-basis-point hike this year and creating balanced trader sentiment around the 50.5% implied probability of no rate increase. Counterbalancing this, July’s softer employment data and the Fed’s unanimous hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through mid-August have reinforced expectations of policy restraint. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over whether supply shocks will prove transitory or require tighter monetary policy. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with updated dot plot projections, along with the next CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift market-implied odds decisively.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,686,009Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept oil prices elevated and core PCE inflation above the Fed’s 2% target at 3.3% as of June 2026, supporting arguments for at least one 25-basis-point hike this year and creating balanced trader sentiment around the 50.5% implied probability of no rate increase. Counterbalancing this, July’s softer employment data and the Fed’s unanimous hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through mid-August have reinforced expectations of policy restraint. The closely contested odds reflect uncertainty over whether supply shocks will prove transitory or require tighter monetary policy. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with updated dot plot projections, along with the next CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift market-implied odds decisively.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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