Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Grok 5 release timing. With Grok 4.7 still unreleased and 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using the new C++ training stack—nearing the end of pre-training before reinforcement learning, Musk placed 4.9 at roughly Astra/Fable performance and explicitly tied AGI-level capability to Grok 5. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 launch windows slipped after the January 2026 Series E confirmation that the model was in training, leaving no official date and positioning late 2026 as the earliest plausible window. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL progress and any multimodal fixes on 4.7 as near-term signals that could shift implied probabilities on year-end contracts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGrok 5 rilasciato da...?
Grok 5 rilasciato da...?
$14,082 Vol.
31 ott 2026
31 ottobre
8%
30 novembre
16%
31 dicembre
54%
$14,082 Vol.
31 ottobre
$3,320 Vol.
8%
30 novembre
$1,210 Vol.
16%
31 dicembre
$4,474 Vol.
54%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Grok 5 release timing. With Grok 4.7 still unreleased and 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using the new C++ training stack—nearing the end of pre-training before reinforcement learning, Musk placed 4.9 at roughly Astra/Fable performance and explicitly tied AGI-level capability to Grok 5. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 launch windows slipped after the January 2026 Series E confirmation that the model was in training, leaving no official date and positioning late 2026 as the earliest plausible window. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL progress and any multimodal fixes on 4.7 as near-term signals that could shift implied probabilities on year-end contracts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$14,082Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Grok 5 release timing. With Grok 4.7 still unreleased and 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using the new C++ training stack—nearing the end of pre-training before reinforcement learning, Musk placed 4.9 at roughly Astra/Fable performance and explicitly tied AGI-level capability to Grok 5. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 launch windows slipped after the January 2026 Series E confirmation that the model was in training, leaving no official date and positioning late 2026 as the earliest plausible window. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL progress and any multimodal fixes on 4.7 as near-term signals that could shift implied probabilities on year-end contracts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$14,082Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Grok 5 release timing. With Grok 4.7 still unreleased and 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using the new C++ training stack—nearing the end of pre-training before reinforcement learning, Musk placed 4.9 at roughly Astra/Fable performance and explicitly tied AGI-level capability to Grok 5. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 launch windows slipped after the January 2026 Series E confirmation that the model was in training, leaving no official date and positioning late 2026 as the earliest plausible window. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL progress and any multimodal fixes on 4.7 as near-term signals that could shift implied probabilities on year-end contracts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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