**Persistent summer climatology and an above-normal temperature outlook from Saudi Arabia’s National Center for Meteorology are the main drivers behind the 72.5% market-implied probability for a high of 41°C or above in Jeddah on August 13.** Jeddah’s Red Sea coastal location typically produces daily maxima in the low-to-mid 40s°C during mid-August under strong solar insolation, high pressure, and light sea breezes, with historical averages near 38–40°C (100–104°F) and occasional peaks exceeding 43°C. Recent model consensus and seasonal guidance projecting 1–1.6°C above normal through the month reinforce this baseline, while recent observed highs of 38–43°C align with the elevated risk. Shorter-range forecasts show some spread around 39–45°C, leaving modest room for cooling from atypical wind shifts or increased moisture, which explains the smaller probabilities assigned to 40°C and below. Traders are effectively pricing the strong historical precedent plus the confirmed positive temperature anomaly.