Recent model consensus from regional forecasts positions São Paulo’s August 12 maximum near 24–25°C, reflecting a stable subtropical high-pressure ridge that suppresses convection and limits daytime insolation under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This setup favors modest warming relative to the climatological August average of 23–25°C, with small differences between the two leading outcomes hinging on precise cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and surface wind speeds that modulate sensible heat flux. Overcast conditions observed in preceding days have similarly capped peaks, while any late-day clearing could allow brief additional heating without exceeding 26°C. Traders weigh these variables against historical winter variability, where radiative cooling overnight and limited solar input keep extremes narrow.