**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict have driven commercial shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz to multi-year lows, producing the market's strong consensus around the 25-49 transits range for the week of August 24.** Ongoing attacks on vessels, Iranian routing restrictions and blacklists, expanded US sanctions, and widespread use of "dark" transits without AIS have kept daily crossings at roughly 4-7 vessels—far below the pre-crisis baseline of ~85 per day—resulting in weekly totals clustered in the low-to-mid 30s. Recent data from maritime trackers show tanker and cargo movements remaining suppressed amid heightened risk premiums and operator caution, with limited recovery from earlier temporary arrangements. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable reductions in traffic rather than speculation. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough or verified corridor reopening could lift volumes, though such shifts have proven fleeting amid recurring escalations and enforcement actions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 24 agosto?
Quante navi transitano nello Stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 24 agosto?
25-49 99.0%
<25 1.8%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$32,903 Vol.
$32,903 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<25
No
25-49
Sì
50-74
No
75-99
No
100+
No
25-49 99.0%
<25 1.8%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
$32,903 Vol.
$32,903 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<25
$13,676 Vol.
No
25-49
$8,789 Vol.
Sì
50-74
$6,749 Vol.
No
75-99
$2,023 Vol.
No
100+
$1,666 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict have driven commercial shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz to multi-year lows, producing the market's strong consensus around the 25-49 transits range for the week of August 24.**
Ongoing attacks on vessels, Iranian routing restrictions and blacklists, expanded US sanctions, and widespread use of "dark" transits without AIS have kept daily crossings at roughly 4-7 vessels—far below the pre-crisis baseline of ~85 per day—resulting in weekly totals clustered in the low-to-mid 30s. Recent data from maritime trackers show tanker and cargo movements remaining suppressed amid heightened risk premiums and operator caution, with limited recovery from earlier temporary arrangements. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable reductions in traffic rather than speculation. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough or verified corridor reopening could lift volumes, though such shifts have proven fleeting amid recurring escalations and enforcement actions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$32,903Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict have driven commercial shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz to multi-year lows, producing the market's strong consensus around the 25-49 transits range for the week of August 24.**
Ongoing attacks on vessels, Iranian routing restrictions and blacklists, expanded US sanctions, and widespread use of "dark" transits without AIS have kept daily crossings at roughly 4-7 vessels—far below the pre-crisis baseline of ~85 per day—resulting in weekly totals clustered in the low-to-mid 30s. Recent data from maritime trackers show tanker and cargo movements remaining suppressed amid heightened risk premiums and operator caution, with limited recovery from earlier temporary arrangements. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable reductions in traffic rather than speculation. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough or verified corridor reopening could lift volumes, though such shifts have proven fleeting amid recurring escalations and enforcement actions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$32,903Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict have driven commercial shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz to multi-year lows, producing the market's strong consensus around the 25-49 transits range for the week of August 24.** Ongoing attacks on vessels, Iranian routing restrictions and blacklists, expanded US sanctions, and widespread use of "dark" transits without AIS have kept daily crossings at roughly 4-7 vessels—far below the pre-crisis baseline of ~85 per day—resulting in weekly totals clustered in the low-to-mid 30s. Recent data from maritime trackers show tanker and cargo movements remaining suppressed amid heightened risk premiums and operator caution, with limited recovery from earlier temporary arrangements. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects verifiable reductions in traffic rather than speculation. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough or verified corridor reopening could lift volumes, though such shifts have proven fleeting amid recurring escalations and enforcement actions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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