Starship's transition to the more powerful V3 architecture, debuting with Flight 12 in mid-May 2026 from a new Texas launch pad, anchors trader sentiment around modest 2026 flight rates. Recent test history shows steady but incremental progress, with only a handful of full-stack flights completed in 2025 and mixed outcomes on upper-stage recovery. While FAA environmental approvals now permit up to 25 or more annual launches at Starbase and Florida sites, actual cadence remains constrained by vehicle iteration, propellant transfer demonstrations targeted for later this year, and reusability milestones still in development. These factors sustain the market's emphasis on fewer than six space-reaching launches for the full year, reflecting realistic development timelines rather than approved maximums.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
Quanti lanci di astronavi SpaceX raggiungeranno lo spazio nel 2026?
<5 46%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.1%
$450,036 Vol.
$450,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
46%
5-6
27%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
<5 46%
5-6 32%
>16 4.1%
7-8 4.1%
$450,036 Vol.
$450,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$90,622 Vol.
46%
5-6
$108,327 Vol.
27%
7-8
$152,207 Vol.
4%
9-10
$55,882 Vol.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Vol.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Vol.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Vol.
2%
>16
$9,304 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Starship's transition to the more powerful V3 architecture, debuting with Flight 12 in mid-May 2026 from a new Texas launch pad, anchors trader sentiment around modest 2026 flight rates. Recent test history shows steady but incremental progress, with only a handful of full-stack flights completed in 2025 and mixed outcomes on upper-stage recovery. While FAA environmental approvals now permit up to 25 or more annual launches at Starbase and Florida sites, actual cadence remains constrained by vehicle iteration, propellant transfer demonstrations targeted for later this year, and reusability milestones still in development. These factors sustain the market's emphasis on fewer than six space-reaching launches for the full year, reflecting realistic development timelines rather than approved maximums.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$450,036Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Starship's transition to the more powerful V3 architecture, debuting with Flight 12 in mid-May 2026 from a new Texas launch pad, anchors trader sentiment around modest 2026 flight rates. Recent test history shows steady but incremental progress, with only a handful of full-stack flights completed in 2025 and mixed outcomes on upper-stage recovery. While FAA environmental approvals now permit up to 25 or more annual launches at Starbase and Florida sites, actual cadence remains constrained by vehicle iteration, propellant transfer demonstrations targeted for later this year, and reusability milestones still in development. These factors sustain the market's emphasis on fewer than six space-reaching launches for the full year, reflecting realistic development timelines rather than approved maximums.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$450,036Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Starship's transition to the more powerful V3 architecture, debuting with Flight 12 in mid-May 2026 from a new Texas launch pad, anchors trader sentiment around modest 2026 flight rates. Recent test history shows steady but incremental progress, with only a handful of full-stack flights completed in 2025 and mixed outcomes on upper-stage recovery. While FAA environmental approvals now permit up to 25 or more annual launches at Starbase and Florida sites, actual cadence remains constrained by vehicle iteration, propellant transfer demonstrations targeted for later this year, and reusability milestones still in development. These factors sustain the market's emphasis on fewer than six space-reaching launches for the full year, reflecting realistic development timelines rather than approved maximums.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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