El Niño conditions strengthening across the equatorial Pacific are the dominant driver behind trader consensus clustering around 7–8 landfalls, as warmer sea surface temperatures and altered steering patterns typically boost Western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and recurvature toward China’s coast during peak season. With multiple systems already striking southern and eastern provinces through mid-August—including recent examples like Noul and Dolphin—the market reflects a season tracking near or slightly above the historical average of roughly seven annual landfalls. Remaining uncertainty stems from late-season steering variability, potential model spread in intensification forecasts, and the exact timing of any additional systems before October, factors that could shift totals toward the tightly bunched 6–8 range or push higher if activity sustains.