Iran maintains significant leverage over commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz via IRGC operations, including recent strikes on vessels such as the MINOAN DIGNITY bulk carrier in mid-August 2026 and the seizure of the AMARA tanker near Qeshm Island. Following the expiration of a June U.S.-Iran memorandum on transit rules, Tehran blacklisted 45 tankers on August 24 for alleged violations, threatening fines, detention, or cargo confiscation while enforcing preferred northern corridors. Multiple confirmed projectile and drone incidents have occurred since June, alongside U.S. countermeasures including blockades and targeted strikes on Iranian maritime assets. Houthi threats to expand disruptions into the Red Sea add pressure on Gulf shipping lanes. These dynamics, including recurring enforcement actions and responses to sanctions or military moves, shape trader assessments of the likelihood and timing of further successful targeting of commercial vessels.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Iran mira con successo alla spedizione entro...?
L'Iran mira con successo alla spedizione entro...?
NUOVO
26 ago 2026
26 agosto
27%
31 agosto
60%
$5,800 Vol.
26 agosto
$5,798 Vol.
27%
31 agosto
$2 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran maintains significant leverage over commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz via IRGC operations, including recent strikes on vessels such as the MINOAN DIGNITY bulk carrier in mid-August 2026 and the seizure of the AMARA tanker near Qeshm Island. Following the expiration of a June U.S.-Iran memorandum on transit rules, Tehran blacklisted 45 tankers on August 24 for alleged violations, threatening fines, detention, or cargo confiscation while enforcing preferred northern corridors. Multiple confirmed projectile and drone incidents have occurred since June, alongside U.S. countermeasures including blockades and targeted strikes on Iranian maritime assets. Houthi threats to expand disruptions into the Red Sea add pressure on Gulf shipping lanes. These dynamics, including recurring enforcement actions and responses to sanctions or military moves, shape trader assessments of the likelihood and timing of further successful targeting of commercial vessels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mercato aperto: Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$5,800Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran maintains significant leverage over commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz via IRGC operations, including recent strikes on vessels such as the MINOAN DIGNITY bulk carrier in mid-August 2026 and the seizure of the AMARA tanker near Qeshm Island. Following the expiration of a June U.S.-Iran memorandum on transit rules, Tehran blacklisted 45 tankers on August 24 for alleged violations, threatening fines, detention, or cargo confiscation while enforcing preferred northern corridors. Multiple confirmed projectile and drone incidents have occurred since June, alongside U.S. countermeasures including blockades and targeted strikes on Iranian maritime assets. Houthi threats to expand disruptions into the Red Sea add pressure on Gulf shipping lanes. These dynamics, including recurring enforcement actions and responses to sanctions or military moves, shape trader assessments of the likelihood and timing of further successful targeting of commercial vessels.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$5,800Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 24, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains significant leverage over commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz via IRGC operations, including recent strikes on vessels such as the MINOAN DIGNITY bulk carrier in mid-August 2026 and the seizure of the AMARA tanker near Qeshm Island. Following the expiration of a June U.S.-Iran memorandum on transit rules, Tehran blacklisted 45 tankers on August 24 for alleged violations, threatening fines, detention, or cargo confiscation while enforcing preferred northern corridors. Multiple confirmed projectile and drone incidents have occurred since June, alongside U.S. countermeasures including blockades and targeted strikes on Iranian maritime assets. Houthi threats to expand disruptions into the Red Sea add pressure on Gulf shipping lanes. These dynamics, including recurring enforcement actions and responses to sanctions or military moves, shape trader assessments of the likelihood and timing of further successful targeting of commercial vessels.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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