**Cape Town's winter positioning in the Southern Hemisphere drives the market's overwhelming consensus on an 8°C or below minimum for August 26.** Official forecasts and model consensus from sources like the South African Weather Service and international numerical models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) indicate radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, with light winds and dew points supporting surface temperatures dropping into the single digits Celsius. Historical August climatology shows typical nighttime lows of 8–12°C at Cape Town International Airport, reinforced by recent cold-front passages earlier in the month that established cooler air masses. Trader-implied odds reflect this alignment of seasonal norms, current synoptic patterns, and real-time observational trends. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include unexpected warm advection from a strengthening northwest flow, increased cloud cover trapping heat, or measurement discrepancies at official stations versus microclimates. New model runs or late-evening observations could introduce minor uncertainty near the threshold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Città del Capo il 26 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa a Città del Capo il 26 agosto?
8°C o inferiore 100.0%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$6,034 Vol.
$6,034 Vol.
26 ago 2026
8°C o inferiore
Sì
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C o superiore
No
8°C o inferiore 100.0%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$6,034 Vol.
$6,034 Vol.
26 ago 2026
8°C o inferiore
$3,331 Vol.
Sì
9°C
$511 Vol.
No
10°C
$431 Vol.
No
11°C
$337 Vol.
No
12°C
$168 Vol.
No
13°C
$179 Vol.
No
14°C
$137 Vol.
No
15°C
$25 Vol.
No
16°C
$285 Vol.
No
17°C
$345 Vol.
No
18°C o superiore
$285 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cape Town's winter positioning in the Southern Hemisphere drives the market's overwhelming consensus on an 8°C or below minimum for August 26.** Official forecasts and model consensus from sources like the South African Weather Service and international numerical models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) indicate radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, with light winds and dew points supporting surface temperatures dropping into the single digits Celsius. Historical August climatology shows typical nighttime lows of 8–12°C at Cape Town International Airport, reinforced by recent cold-front passages earlier in the month that established cooler air masses. Trader-implied odds reflect this alignment of seasonal norms, current synoptic patterns, and real-time observational trends.
Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include unexpected warm advection from a strengthening northwest flow, increased cloud cover trapping heat, or measurement discrepancies at official stations versus microclimates. New model runs or late-evening observations could introduce minor uncertainty near the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$6,034Data di fine
26 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cape Town's winter positioning in the Southern Hemisphere drives the market's overwhelming consensus on an 8°C or below minimum for August 26.** Official forecasts and model consensus from sources like the South African Weather Service and international numerical models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) indicate radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, with light winds and dew points supporting surface temperatures dropping into the single digits Celsius. Historical August climatology shows typical nighttime lows of 8–12°C at Cape Town International Airport, reinforced by recent cold-front passages earlier in the month that established cooler air masses. Trader-implied odds reflect this alignment of seasonal norms, current synoptic patterns, and real-time observational trends.
Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include unexpected warm advection from a strengthening northwest flow, increased cloud cover trapping heat, or measurement discrepancies at official stations versus microclimates. New model runs or late-evening observations could introduce minor uncertainty near the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,034Data di fine
26 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
**Cape Town's winter positioning in the Southern Hemisphere drives the market's overwhelming consensus on an 8°C or below minimum for August 26.** Official forecasts and model consensus from sources like the South African Weather Service and international numerical models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF) indicate radiative cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies overnight, with light winds and dew points supporting surface temperatures dropping into the single digits Celsius. Historical August climatology shows typical nighttime lows of 8–12°C at Cape Town International Airport, reinforced by recent cold-front passages earlier in the month that established cooler air masses. Trader-implied odds reflect this alignment of seasonal norms, current synoptic patterns, and real-time observational trends. Scenarios that could realistically challenge the outcome include unexpected warm advection from a strengthening northwest flow, increased cloud cover trapping heat, or measurement discrepancies at official stations versus microclimates. New model runs or late-evening observations could introduce minor uncertainty near the threshold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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