Major U.S. banks' robust capital positions and resilience underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress test showed all 32 largest institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses under a severe recession scenario—with aggregate CET1 capital declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% while remaining well above minimums—reflecting strong earnings, elevated interest income, and post-2023 regulatory enhancements. Recent regulatory proposals on tailored third-party risk management further support stability amid contained commercial real estate and credit exposures. While elevated loan buyback risks or macroeconomic shocks could test margins, current trader consensus prices in low near-term systemic vulnerability through year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMajor U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
7% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
7% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Major U.S. banks' robust capital positions and resilience underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress test showed all 32 largest institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses under a severe recession scenario—with aggregate CET1 capital declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% while remaining well above minimums—reflecting strong earnings, elevated interest income, and post-2023 regulatory enhancements. Recent regulatory proposals on tailored third-party risk management further support stability amid contained commercial real estate and credit exposures. While elevated loan buyback risks or macroeconomic shocks could test margins, current trader consensus prices in low near-term systemic vulnerability through year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$4,183Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.Major U.S. banks' robust capital positions and resilience underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress test showed all 32 largest institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses under a severe recession scenario—with aggregate CET1 capital declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% while remaining well above minimums—reflecting strong earnings, elevated interest income, and post-2023 regulatory enhancements. Recent regulatory proposals on tailored third-party risk management further support stability amid contained commercial real estate and credit exposures. While elevated loan buyback risks or macroeconomic shocks could test margins, current trader consensus prices in low near-term systemic vulnerability through year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.
-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility
-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank
-A U.S. Treasury capital injection
-A publicly disclosed, regulatory-facilitated acquisition
An official announcement from the U.S. government that they are taking any of these actions will qualify regardless of if/when the action occurs.
Routine access to standing facilities (such as the discount window or BTFP) or participation in stress tests, capital raises, or ordinary supervision will not on their own qualify.
If a bank experiences distress but is acquired privately without public intervention or coordination, this will not qualify.
Volume
$4,183Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Major U.S. banks' robust capital positions and resilience underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a major bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's June 2026 stress test showed all 32 largest institutions absorbing $708 billion in hypothetical losses under a severe recession scenario—with aggregate CET1 capital declining just 1.6 percentage points to 11.2% while remaining well above minimums—reflecting strong earnings, elevated interest income, and post-2023 regulatory enhancements. Recent regulatory proposals on tailored third-party risk management further support stability amid contained commercial real estate and credit exposures. While elevated loan buyback risks or macroeconomic shocks could test margins, current trader consensus prices in low near-term systemic vulnerability through year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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