Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+32, ranking it among the nation's most reliably Democratic seats and anchoring trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Ilhan Omar consolidated support by winning the August 11 Democratic primary with over 80 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel emerged from his party's primary. Major forecasters have rated the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's electoral history and base rates for similar seats. A Republican win would require an exceptional shift in turnout or voter preference that overrides established patterns. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or major turnout changes remain the primary variables that could still alter probabilities before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMN-05 House Election Winner
MN-05 House Election Winner
$48,403 Vol.
$48,403 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
2%
$48,403 Vol.
$48,403 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$18,221 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$30,182 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+32, ranking it among the nation's most reliably Democratic seats and anchoring trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Ilhan Omar consolidated support by winning the August 11 Democratic primary with over 80 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel emerged from his party's primary. Major forecasters have rated the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's electoral history and base rates for similar seats. A Republican win would require an exceptional shift in turnout or voter preference that overrides established patterns. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or major turnout changes remain the primary variables that could still alter probabilities before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$48,403Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+32, ranking it among the nation's most reliably Democratic seats and anchoring trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Ilhan Omar consolidated support by winning the August 11 Democratic primary with over 80 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel emerged from his party's primary. Major forecasters have rated the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's electoral history and base rates for similar seats. A Republican win would require an exceptional shift in turnout or voter preference that overrides established patterns. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or major turnout changes remain the primary variables that could still alter probabilities before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,403Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 5th Congressional District maintains a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+32, ranking it among the nation's most reliably Democratic seats and anchoring trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Incumbent Ilhan Omar consolidated support by winning the August 11 Democratic primary with over 80 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, while Republican nominee John Nagel emerged from his party's primary. Major forecasters have rated the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's electoral history and base rates for similar seats. A Republican win would require an exceptional shift in turnout or voter preference that overrides established patterns. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or major turnout changes remain the primary variables that could still alter probabilities before Election Day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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