Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 followed his father’s death in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes, in which he was reportedly injured. Since then he has issued only written statements and avoided verified public appearances, citing health recovery, security risks amid ongoing conflict, and regime stability concerns. Iranian state media released a brief undated video on August 10 showing him in a closed meeting, framed as addressing health rumors, though it has not shifted trader assessments of a live or in-person public event. Low implied probabilities for near-term resolution deadlines reflect these persistent barriers, with any verifiable footage before key cutoffs remaining the decisive trigger for market movement.