Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show Labour overtaking National in party vote support for the first time since 2023, with Labour reaching 31–37 percent while National sits between 29–36 percent across multiple surveys. This shift has narrowed the gap between the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc and the National-ACT-New Zealand First coalition, prompting traders to assign Labour a 56.5 percent chance of emerging as the largest party. Government approval ratings have softened amid questions over economic performance and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s leadership stability, while NZ First has recorded gains that could influence coalition arithmetic. The mixed-member proportional system means final outcomes hinge on seat totals and post-election negotiations, keeping smaller parties like ACT and the Greens at low single-digit probabilities in current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNew Zealand legislative election winner?
New Zealand legislative election winner?
Labour Party 56%
National Party 35%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
New Zealand First Party <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
7 nov 2026
National Party
40%
Labour Party
56%
Green Party
<1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
New Zealand First Party
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
1%
Labour Party 56%
National Party 35%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
New Zealand First Party <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
7 nov 2026
National Party
$1,057 Vol.
40%
Labour Party
$1,108 Vol.
56%
Green Party
$329 Vol.
<1%
ACT New Zealand
$339 Vol.
<1%
New Zealand First Party
$319 Vol.
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
$314 Vol.
1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show Labour overtaking National in party vote support for the first time since 2023, with Labour reaching 31–37 percent while National sits between 29–36 percent across multiple surveys. This shift has narrowed the gap between the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc and the National-ACT-New Zealand First coalition, prompting traders to assign Labour a 56.5 percent chance of emerging as the largest party. Government approval ratings have softened amid questions over economic performance and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s leadership stability, while NZ First has recorded gains that could influence coalition arithmetic. The mixed-member proportional system means final outcomes hinge on seat totals and post-election negotiations, keeping smaller parties like ACT and the Greens at low single-digit probabilities in current pricing.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$3,464Data di fine
7 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show Labour overtaking National in party vote support for the first time since 2023, with Labour reaching 31–37 percent while National sits between 29–36 percent across multiple surveys. This shift has narrowed the gap between the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc and the National-ACT-New Zealand First coalition, prompting traders to assign Labour a 56.5 percent chance of emerging as the largest party. Government approval ratings have softened amid questions over economic performance and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s leadership stability, while NZ First has recorded gains that could influence coalition arithmetic. The mixed-member proportional system means final outcomes hinge on seat totals and post-election negotiations, keeping smaller parties like ACT and the Greens at low single-digit probabilities in current pricing.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Volume
$3,464Data di fine
7 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s November 2026 general election show Labour overtaking National in party vote support for the first time since 2023, with Labour reaching 31–37 percent while National sits between 29–36 percent across multiple surveys. This shift has narrowed the gap between the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc and the National-ACT-New Zealand First coalition, prompting traders to assign Labour a 56.5 percent chance of emerging as the largest party. Government approval ratings have softened amid questions over economic performance and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s leadership stability, while NZ First has recorded gains that could influence coalition arithmetic. The mixed-member proportional system means final outcomes hinge on seat totals and post-election negotiations, keeping smaller parties like ACT and the Greens at low single-digit probabilities in current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti