Internal pressures at OpenAI, including CFO Sarah Friar’s reported preference for a 2027 listing over the prior late-2026 target, are anchoring trader sentiment around a 74% implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2026. Heavy capital commitments for AI infrastructure—projected to drive $14 billion in 2026 losses despite $25 billion annualized revenue—have prompted analysts at PitchBook to deem a fourth-quarter 2026 debut unrealistic amid rigorous public-company reporting demands. The company’s recent $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation and ongoing Microsoft partnership restructuring provide stability, yet persistent unprofitability until 2029–2030 and the absence of an S-1 filing reinforce caution on near-term listing and elevated market-cap outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCapitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO OpenAI
Capitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO OpenAI
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026 74%
1,5T+ 10.6%
1,25 T–1,5 T 3.7%
500–750 miliardi 3.5%
$1,638,632 Vol.
$1,638,632 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<500Mld
1%
500–750 miliardi
3%
750 miliardi–1 trilione
2%
1T–1,25T
2%
1,25 T–1,5 T
4%
1,5T+
11%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026
74%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026 74%
1,5T+ 10.6%
1,25 T–1,5 T 3.7%
500–750 miliardi 3.5%
$1,638,632 Vol.
$1,638,632 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<500Mld
$266,170 Vol.
1%
500–750 miliardi
$146,331 Vol.
3%
750 miliardi–1 trilione
$141,040 Vol.
2%
1T–1,25T
$182,614 Vol.
2%
1,25 T–1,5 T
$496,517 Vol.
4%
1,5T+
$100,922 Vol.
11%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026
$305,039 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Internal pressures at OpenAI, including CFO Sarah Friar’s reported preference for a 2027 listing over the prior late-2026 target, are anchoring trader sentiment around a 74% implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2026. Heavy capital commitments for AI infrastructure—projected to drive $14 billion in 2026 losses despite $25 billion annualized revenue—have prompted analysts at PitchBook to deem a fourth-quarter 2026 debut unrealistic amid rigorous public-company reporting demands. The company’s recent $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation and ongoing Microsoft partnership restructuring provide stability, yet persistent unprofitability until 2029–2030 and the absence of an S-1 filing reinforce caution on near-term listing and elevated market-cap outcomes.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercato aperto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,638,632Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Internal pressures at OpenAI, including CFO Sarah Friar’s reported preference for a 2027 listing over the prior late-2026 target, are anchoring trader sentiment around a 74% implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2026. Heavy capital commitments for AI infrastructure—projected to drive $14 billion in 2026 losses despite $25 billion annualized revenue—have prompted analysts at PitchBook to deem a fourth-quarter 2026 debut unrealistic amid rigorous public-company reporting demands. The company’s recent $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation and ongoing Microsoft partnership restructuring provide stability, yet persistent unprofitability until 2029–2030 and the absence of an S-1 filing reinforce caution on near-term listing and elevated market-cap outcomes.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,638,632Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Internal pressures at OpenAI, including CFO Sarah Friar’s reported preference for a 2027 listing over the prior late-2026 target, are anchoring trader sentiment around a 74% implied probability of no IPO by December 31, 2026. Heavy capital commitments for AI infrastructure—projected to drive $14 billion in 2026 losses despite $25 billion annualized revenue—have prompted analysts at PitchBook to deem a fourth-quarter 2026 debut unrealistic amid rigorous public-company reporting demands. The company’s recent $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation and ongoing Microsoft partnership restructuring provide stability, yet persistent unprofitability until 2029–2030 and the absence of an S-1 filing reinforce caution on near-term listing and elevated market-cap outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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