Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in the market’s 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. The district’s suburban Philadelphia footprint, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Dean’s established incumbency since 2019 underpin trader consensus. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic following the May 19 primary, with Republican nominee Aurora Stuski facing limited visibility or resources. No significant polling shifts, candidate controversies, or national events have altered the outlook in the past month. A late-breaking scandal, health development, or broader Republican surge tied to national conditions could narrow the gap, though structural advantages make a reversal improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPA-04 House Election Winner
PA-04 House Election Winner
$19,235 Vol.
$19,235 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$19,235 Vol.
$19,235 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$6,741 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,495 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in the market’s 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. The district’s suburban Philadelphia footprint, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Dean’s established incumbency since 2019 underpin trader consensus. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic following the May 19 primary, with Republican nominee Aurora Stuski facing limited visibility or resources. No significant polling shifts, candidate controversies, or national events have altered the outlook in the past month. A late-breaking scandal, health development, or broader Republican surge tied to national conditions could narrow the gap, though structural advantages make a reversal improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$19,235Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in the market’s 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. The district’s suburban Philadelphia footprint, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Dean’s established incumbency since 2019 underpin trader consensus. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic following the May 19 primary, with Republican nominee Aurora Stuski facing limited visibility or resources. No significant polling shifts, candidate controversies, or national events have altered the outlook in the past month. A late-breaking scandal, health development, or broader Republican surge tied to national conditions could narrow the gap, though structural advantages make a reversal improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,235Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in the market’s 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic victory. The district’s suburban Philadelphia footprint, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and Dean’s established incumbency since 2019 underpin trader consensus. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic following the May 19 primary, with Republican nominee Aurora Stuski facing limited visibility or resources. No significant polling shifts, candidate controversies, or national events have altered the outlook in the past month. A late-breaking scandal, health development, or broader Republican surge tied to national conditions could narrow the gap, though structural advantages make a reversal improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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