**RFK Jr. remains HHS Secretary with strong White House alignment nearly 18 months into his tenure, supporting trader consensus that he is unlikely to depart by December 31.** Despite ongoing criticism from public health groups, over 1,000 current and former HHS staff calling for his resignation in mid-August 2026, and reports of leadership turnover plus disengagement, no formal signals point to removal or resignation. Kennedy continues directing policy on Make America Healthy Again priorities, announcing new federal initiatives as recently as August 21. Historical patterns of cabinet continuity absent direct presidential action or major scandals reinforce the 75% probability traders assign to him serving through year-end. Court setbacks on vaccine-related changes and internal agency friction create some uncertainty but have not altered his position to date.