Recent polls ahead of Spain’s November 29 snap general election place PP near 31% and Vox near 19%, for a combined share hovering around or just above 50% depending on the survey. Vox has risen sharply from its 2023 result while PSOE hovers in the mid-to-high 20s, with some late trackers showing the left bloc closing the gap enough to keep the right-wing total marginal. Seat projections frequently favor PP plus Vox for a congressional majority due to the electoral system, yet popular-vote averages remain close enough that modest shifts in undecided voters or turnout could decide whether the 50% threshold is crossed. The campaign, which opened November 13, has produced no decisive late movement, leaving trader pricing aligned with poll variability rather than a clear majority outcome.