Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress continue to block Democratic efforts to advance impeachment articles or invoke the 25th Amendment, despite renewed calls following President Trump’s April 2026 statements on Iran. These partisan resolutions lack the bipartisan support needed for House passage or the two-thirds Senate vote required for conviction, consistent with historical patterns where removal proceedings rarely succeed absent overwhelming consensus. Cabinet alignment with the vice president further raises the procedural threshold for any incapacity determination. Traders price this high implied probability of continuity because no resignation, health crisis, or institutional shift has materialized in recent weeks, leaving mid-November 2026 midterms as the next potential inflection point well after the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$8,520,176 Vol.
$8,520,176 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$8,520,176 Vol.
$8,520,176 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress continue to block Democratic efforts to advance impeachment articles or invoke the 25th Amendment, despite renewed calls following President Trump’s April 2026 statements on Iran. These partisan resolutions lack the bipartisan support needed for House passage or the two-thirds Senate vote required for conviction, consistent with historical patterns where removal proceedings rarely succeed absent overwhelming consensus. Cabinet alignment with the vice president further raises the procedural threshold for any incapacity determination. Traders price this high implied probability of continuity because no resignation, health crisis, or institutional shift has materialized in recent weeks, leaving mid-November 2026 midterms as the next potential inflection point well after the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,520,176Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress continue to block Democratic efforts to advance impeachment articles or invoke the 25th Amendment, despite renewed calls following President Trump’s April 2026 statements on Iran. These partisan resolutions lack the bipartisan support needed for House passage or the two-thirds Senate vote required for conviction, consistent with historical patterns where removal proceedings rarely succeed absent overwhelming consensus. Cabinet alignment with the vice president further raises the procedural threshold for any incapacity determination. Traders price this high implied probability of continuity because no resignation, health crisis, or institutional shift has materialized in recent weeks, leaving mid-November 2026 midterms as the next potential inflection point well after the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,520,176Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress continue to block Democratic efforts to advance impeachment articles or invoke the 25th Amendment, despite renewed calls following President Trump’s April 2026 statements on Iran. These partisan resolutions lack the bipartisan support needed for House passage or the two-thirds Senate vote required for conviction, consistent with historical patterns where removal proceedings rarely succeed absent overwhelming consensus. Cabinet alignment with the vice president further raises the procedural threshold for any incapacity determination. Traders price this high implied probability of continuity because no resignation, health crisis, or institutional shift has materialized in recent weeks, leaving mid-November 2026 midterms as the next potential inflection point well after the market’s December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti