Recent House action tabling Rep. Al Green’s impeachment resolution on September 15, with significant Democratic support for the motion, has reinforced expectations that removal proceedings will not advance before the 2026 midterms. Republican majorities in both chambers currently block easy passage of articles, while Senate conviction requires a two-thirds vote that has proven unattainable in prior Trump trials. No credible reports indicate resignation or health-driven departure, and ongoing staff transitions reflect normal turnover rather than an exit signal. Traders therefore price the chance of Trump leaving office before 2027 at roughly 5.5 percent, viewing Democratic midterm gains and any subsequent House efforts as insufficient to overcome constitutional and political barriers in the near term.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
6% probabilità
$11,742,827 Vol.
$11,742,827 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
6% probabilità
$11,742,827 Vol.
$11,742,827 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent House action tabling Rep. Al Green’s impeachment resolution on September 15, with significant Democratic support for the motion, has reinforced expectations that removal proceedings will not advance before the 2026 midterms. Republican majorities in both chambers currently block easy passage of articles, while Senate conviction requires a two-thirds vote that has proven unattainable in prior Trump trials. No credible reports indicate resignation or health-driven departure, and ongoing staff transitions reflect normal turnover rather than an exit signal. Traders therefore price the chance of Trump leaving office before 2027 at roughly 5.5 percent, viewing Democratic midterm gains and any subsequent House efforts as insufficient to overcome constitutional and political barriers in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,742,827Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent House action tabling Rep. Al Green’s impeachment resolution on September 15, with significant Democratic support for the motion, has reinforced expectations that removal proceedings will not advance before the 2026 midterms. Republican majorities in both chambers currently block easy passage of articles, while Senate conviction requires a two-thirds vote that has proven unattainable in prior Trump trials. No credible reports indicate resignation or health-driven departure, and ongoing staff transitions reflect normal turnover rather than an exit signal. Traders therefore price the chance of Trump leaving office before 2027 at roughly 5.5 percent, viewing Democratic midterm gains and any subsequent House efforts as insufficient to overcome constitutional and political barriers in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,742,827Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent House action tabling Rep. Al Green’s impeachment resolution on September 15, with significant Democratic support for the motion, has reinforced expectations that removal proceedings will not advance before the 2026 midterms. Republican majorities in both chambers currently block easy passage of articles, while Senate conviction requires a two-thirds vote that has proven unattainable in prior Trump trials. No credible reports indicate resignation or health-driven departure, and ongoing staff transitions reflect normal turnover rather than an exit signal. Traders therefore price the chance of Trump leaving office before 2027 at roughly 5.5 percent, viewing Democratic midterm gains and any subsequent House efforts as insufficient to overcome constitutional and political barriers in the near term.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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