Turkey’s ruling AK Party lacks the parliamentary seats required to advance a full constitutional replacement or referendum without securing broad opposition backing or a viable coalition, a structural barrier that has kept momentum stalled despite ongoing internal commission reviews and preparatory drafts. President Erdoğan has signaled 2026 as a “year of reform” and renewed calls for an inclusive civilian charter, yet recent seat gains remain modest and fall short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a public vote or the 400-vote supermajority for direct passage. Public polling continues to show resistance to term-limit adjustments or major systemic changes, while competing priorities such as Kurdish negotiations and economic measures have slowed legislative focus. Traders therefore price the probability of an official referendum announcement by year-end at roughly one-third, reflecting the gap between stated ambitions and the arithmetic reality in parliament.