President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a legal commission to draft a new civilian constitution has kept constitutional reform under discussion within the AKP and its allies, yet no completed draft has advanced to parliamentary debate or triggered a formal referendum announcement by late August 2026. Recent passage of the Law on Strengthening National Solidarity in August 2026 with broad cross-party support revived calls for a “civilian constitution,” and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism about progress in 2026–2027. However, the ruling coalition still lacks the parliamentary seats needed for constitutional amendments without wider opposition backing, leaving procedural and coalition-building hurdles unresolved. Traders therefore assign an 87% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any scheduled ballot measure or finalized text within the calendar year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato14% probabilità
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30 dic 2026
14% probabilità
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30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a legal commission to draft a new civilian constitution has kept constitutional reform under discussion within the AKP and its allies, yet no completed draft has advanced to parliamentary debate or triggered a formal referendum announcement by late August 2026. Recent passage of the Law on Strengthening National Solidarity in August 2026 with broad cross-party support revived calls for a “civilian constitution,” and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism about progress in 2026–2027. However, the ruling coalition still lacks the parliamentary seats needed for constitutional amendments without wider opposition backing, leaving procedural and coalition-building hurdles unresolved. Traders therefore assign an 87% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any scheduled ballot measure or finalized text within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$6,734Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a legal commission to draft a new civilian constitution has kept constitutional reform under discussion within the AKP and its allies, yet no completed draft has advanced to parliamentary debate or triggered a formal referendum announcement by late August 2026. Recent passage of the Law on Strengthening National Solidarity in August 2026 with broad cross-party support revived calls for a “civilian constitution,” and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism about progress in 2026–2027. However, the ruling coalition still lacks the parliamentary seats needed for constitutional amendments without wider opposition backing, leaving procedural and coalition-building hurdles unresolved. Traders therefore assign an 87% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any scheduled ballot measure or finalized text within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,734Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a legal commission to draft a new civilian constitution has kept constitutional reform under discussion within the AKP and its allies, yet no completed draft has advanced to parliamentary debate or triggered a formal referendum announcement by late August 2026. Recent passage of the Law on Strengthening National Solidarity in August 2026 with broad cross-party support revived calls for a “civilian constitution,” and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressed optimism about progress in 2026–2027. However, the ruling coalition still lacks the parliamentary seats needed for constitutional amendments without wider opposition backing, leaving procedural and coalition-building hurdles unresolved. Traders therefore assign an 87% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any scheduled ballot measure or finalized text within the calendar year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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