**Bipartisan proposals for comprehensive federal AI safety rules, such as the Great American AI Act discussion draft and its July 2026 introduced version, have advanced only to committee stages or early introduction amid sharp disagreements over state-law preemption.** The House Science Committee reported narrower measures on AI research, labeling, NIST centers, and incident reporting in June 2026, but these fall short of binding frontier-model safety mandates. A deregulatory administration posture favoring executive frameworks and innovation incentives, combined with Senate procedural hurdles, competing legislative priorities, and active state-level AI enactments, has slowed momentum. With roughly four months left in the 2026 session and no clear path to floor votes or bicameral agreement, trader consensus assigns low probability to enactment of a qualifying AI safety bill before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
10% probabilità
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
10% probabilità
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Bipartisan proposals for comprehensive federal AI safety rules, such as the Great American AI Act discussion draft and its July 2026 introduced version, have advanced only to committee stages or early introduction amid sharp disagreements over state-law preemption.** The House Science Committee reported narrower measures on AI research, labeling, NIST centers, and incident reporting in June 2026, but these fall short of binding frontier-model safety mandates. A deregulatory administration posture favoring executive frameworks and innovation incentives, combined with Senate procedural hurdles, competing legislative priorities, and active state-level AI enactments, has slowed momentum. With roughly four months left in the 2026 session and no clear path to floor votes or bicameral agreement, trader consensus assigns low probability to enactment of a qualifying AI safety bill before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$101,790Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Bipartisan proposals for comprehensive federal AI safety rules, such as the Great American AI Act discussion draft and its July 2026 introduced version, have advanced only to committee stages or early introduction amid sharp disagreements over state-law preemption.** The House Science Committee reported narrower measures on AI research, labeling, NIST centers, and incident reporting in June 2026, but these fall short of binding frontier-model safety mandates. A deregulatory administration posture favoring executive frameworks and innovation incentives, combined with Senate procedural hurdles, competing legislative priorities, and active state-level AI enactments, has slowed momentum. With roughly four months left in the 2026 session and no clear path to floor votes or bicameral agreement, trader consensus assigns low probability to enactment of a qualifying AI safety bill before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101,790Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Bipartisan proposals for comprehensive federal AI safety rules, such as the Great American AI Act discussion draft and its July 2026 introduced version, have advanced only to committee stages or early introduction amid sharp disagreements over state-law preemption.** The House Science Committee reported narrower measures on AI research, labeling, NIST centers, and incident reporting in June 2026, but these fall short of binding frontier-model safety mandates. A deregulatory administration posture favoring executive frameworks and innovation incentives, combined with Senate procedural hurdles, competing legislative priorities, and active state-level AI enactments, has slowed momentum. With roughly four months left in the 2026 session and no clear path to floor votes or bicameral agreement, trader consensus assigns low probability to enactment of a qualifying AI safety bill before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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