**Congressional efforts on AI safety have produced committee advancements and new proposals but no enacted comprehensive federal bill.** In June 2026, the House Science Committee advanced a bipartisan package of narrower measures on AI security, labeling, research, and workforce development. July saw introduction of the Obernolte-Trahan legislation, which would establish frontier model guardrails, independent verification organizations, incident reporting, and a new Commerce Department AI security position. However, disputes over state preemption, regulatory scope, and partisan gridlock have stalled progress, with analysts noting insufficient momentum to overcome legislative hurdles before the end of 2026 or midterms. Trader consensus at 90% against enactment before 2027 reflects these procedural and political barriers, alongside the absence of scheduled floor action or broad bipartisan agreement on a major safety framework. State-level measures continue to fill gaps in the interim.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
10% probabilità
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
10% probabilità
$101,790 Vol.
$101,790 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Congressional efforts on AI safety have produced committee advancements and new proposals but no enacted comprehensive federal bill.** In June 2026, the House Science Committee advanced a bipartisan package of narrower measures on AI security, labeling, research, and workforce development. July saw introduction of the Obernolte-Trahan legislation, which would establish frontier model guardrails, independent verification organizations, incident reporting, and a new Commerce Department AI security position. However, disputes over state preemption, regulatory scope, and partisan gridlock have stalled progress, with analysts noting insufficient momentum to overcome legislative hurdles before the end of 2026 or midterms. Trader consensus at 90% against enactment before 2027 reflects these procedural and political barriers, alongside the absence of scheduled floor action or broad bipartisan agreement on a major safety framework. State-level measures continue to fill gaps in the interim.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$101,790Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Congressional efforts on AI safety have produced committee advancements and new proposals but no enacted comprehensive federal bill.** In June 2026, the House Science Committee advanced a bipartisan package of narrower measures on AI security, labeling, research, and workforce development. July saw introduction of the Obernolte-Trahan legislation, which would establish frontier model guardrails, independent verification organizations, incident reporting, and a new Commerce Department AI security position. However, disputes over state preemption, regulatory scope, and partisan gridlock have stalled progress, with analysts noting insufficient momentum to overcome legislative hurdles before the end of 2026 or midterms. Trader consensus at 90% against enactment before 2027 reflects these procedural and political barriers, alongside the absence of scheduled floor action or broad bipartisan agreement on a major safety framework. State-level measures continue to fill gaps in the interim.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101,790Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Congressional efforts on AI safety have produced committee advancements and new proposals but no enacted comprehensive federal bill.** In June 2026, the House Science Committee advanced a bipartisan package of narrower measures on AI security, labeling, research, and workforce development. July saw introduction of the Obernolte-Trahan legislation, which would establish frontier model guardrails, independent verification organizations, incident reporting, and a new Commerce Department AI security position. However, disputes over state preemption, regulatory scope, and partisan gridlock have stalled progress, with analysts noting insufficient momentum to overcome legislative hurdles before the end of 2026 or midterms. Trader consensus at 90% against enactment before 2027 reflects these procedural and political barriers, alongside the absence of scheduled floor action or broad bipartisan agreement on a major safety framework. State-level measures continue to fill gaps in the interim.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti