**Trader consensus on a 96% probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 rests on the continued strength of the all-volunteer force and the absence of any congressional legislation to restore induction authority.** All active-duty branches met or exceeded fiscal 2026 recruiting goals, with the Army signing over 61,500 contracts and other services hitting targets early or on schedule. The fiscal 2026 NDAA mandates automatic Selective Service registration starting December 2026, yet this only updates the existing registration system and does not restore the president’s or Congress’s power to induct personnel, which lapsed in 1973. No major conflict or manpower crisis has triggered draft legislation, and bipartisan proposals seek to repeal the Selective Service System entirely. Late-year developments such as expanded Coast Guard recruitment further signal adequate volunteer supply. The primary remaining risk factors include an unforeseen large-scale contingency that exhausts reserves and recruiting incentives before year-end, prompting emergency congressional action.