Trader consensus reflects the high bar for authorizing a US military draft, last used during the Vietnam War and requiring Congressional action amid a declared national emergency, with no such moves in 2026 despite geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel war against Iran earlier this year. Recent developments center on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, which mandates automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men starting December 2026 to streamline the inactive draft pool—but explicitly does not activate conscription. Bipartisan legislation reintroduced last week by Senators Wyden, Paul, and Lummis seeks to abolish Selective Service altogether, underscoring minimal momentum for reinstatement amid a robust all-volunteer force. Absent major escalation or legislative push, traders price low risk through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$251,086 Vol.
$251,086 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$251,086 Vol.
$251,086 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the high bar for authorizing a US military draft, last used during the Vietnam War and requiring Congressional action amid a declared national emergency, with no such moves in 2026 despite geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel war against Iran earlier this year. Recent developments center on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, which mandates automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men starting December 2026 to streamline the inactive draft pool—but explicitly does not activate conscription. Bipartisan legislation reintroduced last week by Senators Wyden, Paul, and Lummis seeks to abolish Selective Service altogether, underscoring minimal momentum for reinstatement amid a robust all-volunteer force. Absent major escalation or legislative push, traders price low risk through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$251,086Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the high bar for authorizing a US military draft, last used during the Vietnam War and requiring Congressional action amid a declared national emergency, with no such moves in 2026 despite geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel war against Iran earlier this year. Recent developments center on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, which mandates automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men starting December 2026 to streamline the inactive draft pool—but explicitly does not activate conscription. Bipartisan legislation reintroduced last week by Senators Wyden, Paul, and Lummis seeks to abolish Selective Service altogether, underscoring minimal momentum for reinstatement amid a robust all-volunteer force. Absent major escalation or legislative push, traders price low risk through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$251,086Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the high bar for authorizing a US military draft, last used during the Vietnam War and requiring Congressional action amid a declared national emergency, with no such moves in 2026 despite geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel war against Iran earlier this year. Recent developments center on the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed by President Trump in December 2025, which mandates automatic Selective Service registration for eligible men starting December 2026 to streamline the inactive draft pool—but explicitly does not activate conscription. Bipartisan legislation reintroduced last week by Senators Wyden, Paul, and Lummis seeks to abolish Selective Service altogether, underscoring minimal momentum for reinstatement amid a robust all-volunteer force. Absent major escalation or legislative push, traders price low risk through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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