US military leaders and lawmakers continue to prioritize the all-volunteer force, with no congressional action or presidential request to amend the Military Selective Service Act and authorize conscription for 2026. Recent National Defense Authorization Act provisions focus solely on automating Selective Service registration to improve database efficiency, without triggering induction authority or addressing troop shortfalls through mandatory service. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related developments earlier in the year, have not produced the scale of emergency needed to overcome longstanding bipartisan reluctance to reinstate a draft last used in 1973. Trader consensus reflects these structural and political barriers, though a sudden major escalation requiring rapid force expansion could still prompt legislative consideration before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
5% probabilità
$521,268 Vol.
$521,268 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$521,268 Vol.
$521,268 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US military leaders and lawmakers continue to prioritize the all-volunteer force, with no congressional action or presidential request to amend the Military Selective Service Act and authorize conscription for 2026. Recent National Defense Authorization Act provisions focus solely on automating Selective Service registration to improve database efficiency, without triggering induction authority or addressing troop shortfalls through mandatory service. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related developments earlier in the year, have not produced the scale of emergency needed to overcome longstanding bipartisan reluctance to reinstate a draft last used in 1973. Trader consensus reflects these structural and political barriers, though a sudden major escalation requiring rapid force expansion could still prompt legislative consideration before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$521,268Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US military leaders and lawmakers continue to prioritize the all-volunteer force, with no congressional action or presidential request to amend the Military Selective Service Act and authorize conscription for 2026. Recent National Defense Authorization Act provisions focus solely on automating Selective Service registration to improve database efficiency, without triggering induction authority or addressing troop shortfalls through mandatory service. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related developments earlier in the year, have not produced the scale of emergency needed to overcome longstanding bipartisan reluctance to reinstate a draft last used in 1973. Trader consensus reflects these structural and political barriers, though a sudden major escalation requiring rapid force expansion could still prompt legislative consideration before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$521,268Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military leaders and lawmakers continue to prioritize the all-volunteer force, with no congressional action or presidential request to amend the Military Selective Service Act and authorize conscription for 2026. Recent National Defense Authorization Act provisions focus solely on automating Selective Service registration to improve database efficiency, without triggering induction authority or addressing troop shortfalls through mandatory service. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related developments earlier in the year, have not produced the scale of emergency needed to overcome longstanding bipartisan reluctance to reinstate a draft last used in 1973. Trader consensus reflects these structural and political barriers, though a sudden major escalation requiring rapid force expansion could still prompt legislative consideration before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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