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icon for Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?
Economy·Jerome Powell

Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?

icon for Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?
Economy·Jerome Powell

Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?

$1,842,636 Vol.

30 dic 2026
Polymarket

$1,842,636 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5,5%

$55,364 Vol.

3%

↑ 5,25%

$142,579 Vol.

3%

↑ 5,0%

$19,154 Vol.

3%

↑ 4,75%

$80,622 Vol.

4%

↑ 4,5%

$39,789 Vol.

24%

↑ 4,25%

$129,864 Vol.

76%

↓ 3,25%

$81,643 Vol.

4%

↓ 3,0%

$320,038 Vol.

<1%

↓ 2,75%

$366,465 Vol.

2%

↓ 2,5%

$225,788 Vol.

1%

↓ 2,25%

$41,840 Vol.

2%

↓ 2,0%

$21,380 Vol.

3%

↓ 1,75%

$13,136 Vol.

1%

↓ 1,5%

$28,320 Vol.

2%

↓ 1,25%

$3,778 Vol.

1%

↓ 1,0%

$2,319 Vol.

2%

↓ 0,75%

$741 Vol.

1%

↓ 0,5%

$107,202 Vol.

2%

↓ 0,25%

$132,406 Vol.

2%

↓ 0%

$21,203 Vol.

2%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Open Market Committee’s September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—reflects elevated inflation readings near 3.4-3.7% and resilient economic growth with a stable labor market. Policymakers’ updated dot plot now points to one additional 25-basis-point increase by year-end, holding the median rate near 4.1% through 2027 before modest easing in 2028. This hawkish shift, driven by persistent price pressures and geopolitical uncertainties, has elevated market-implied odds of the upper bound reaching 4.25% before 2027 while keeping probabilities for deeper cuts or further aggressive hikes low. Traders are closely watching the October 28 and December FOMC meetings, along with incoming CPI and employment data, for signals on whether the terminal rate path will hold steady or adjust.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,842,636
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Open Market Committee’s September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—reflects elevated inflation readings near 3.4-3.7% and resilient economic growth with a stable labor market. Policymakers’ updated dot plot now points to one additional 25-basis-point increase by year-end, holding the median rate near 4.1% through 2027 before modest easing in 2028. This hawkish shift, driven by persistent price pressures and geopolitical uncertainties, has elevated market-implied odds of the upper bound reaching 4.25% before 2027 while keeping probabilities for deeper cuts or further aggressive hikes low. Traders are closely watching the October 28 and December FOMC meetings, along with incoming CPI and employment data, for signals on whether the terminal rate path will hold steady or adjust.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,842,636
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...

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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 21 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "↓ 3,5%" a 100%, seguito da "↑ 4,25%" a 76%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?" ha generato $1.8 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 18, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?", esplora i 21 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?" è "↓ 3,5%" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "↑ 4,25%" a 76%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.