Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare even amid bilateral strains, supporting the 66.5% trader consensus favoring "No" by year-end. Recent months show continued U.S. ambassador vacancies following the Trump administration's late-2025 recalls of nearly 30 career envoys, alongside frictions such as South African political rhetoric and Iranian statements on regional diplomacy, yet no host nation has declared a U.S. envoy persona non grata. Historical patterns indicate such escalatory steps typically require acute crises or direct interference claims that have not materialized. Scheduled events like ongoing nuclear talks or trade negotiations could introduce volatility, but current evidence points to stability through December.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$16,999 Vol.
$16,999 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$16,999 Vol.
$16,999 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare even amid bilateral strains, supporting the 66.5% trader consensus favoring "No" by year-end. Recent months show continued U.S. ambassador vacancies following the Trump administration's late-2025 recalls of nearly 30 career envoys, alongside frictions such as South African political rhetoric and Iranian statements on regional diplomacy, yet no host nation has declared a U.S. envoy persona non grata. Historical patterns indicate such escalatory steps typically require acute crises or direct interference claims that have not materialized. Scheduled events like ongoing nuclear talks or trade negotiations could introduce volatility, but current evidence points to stability through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$16,999Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare even amid bilateral strains, supporting the 66.5% trader consensus favoring "No" by year-end. Recent months show continued U.S. ambassador vacancies following the Trump administration's late-2025 recalls of nearly 30 career envoys, alongside frictions such as South African political rhetoric and Iranian statements on regional diplomacy, yet no host nation has declared a U.S. envoy persona non grata. Historical patterns indicate such escalatory steps typically require acute crises or direct interference claims that have not materialized. Scheduled events like ongoing nuclear talks or trade negotiations could introduce volatility, but current evidence points to stability through December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,999Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain rare even amid bilateral strains, supporting the 66.5% trader consensus favoring "No" by year-end. Recent months show continued U.S. ambassador vacancies following the Trump administration's late-2025 recalls of nearly 30 career envoys, alongside frictions such as South African political rhetoric and Iranian statements on regional diplomacy, yet no host nation has declared a U.S. envoy persona non grata. Historical patterns indicate such escalatory steps typically require acute crises or direct interference claims that have not materialized. Scheduled events like ongoing nuclear talks or trade negotiations could introduce volatility, but current evidence points to stability through December.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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