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icon for Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti alle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?
Elezioni·Italia

Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti alle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?

icon for Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti alle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?
Elezioni·Italia

Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti alle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?

Sì

53% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO

Sì

53% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place Futuro Nazionale near or slightly above the 3% threshold, with June 2026 surveys from firms including SWG and Tecnè showing the nationalist party founded by Roberto Vannacci in February 2026 at 3.8–4.8%. The new movement has drawn support primarily from Lega voters and grown its parliamentary presence through defections, creating uncertainty about long-term consolidation ahead of the election due no later than December 2027. Traders' near-even odds reflect the competitive balance between sustained momentum for the emerging force and risks of fragmentation or coalition realignments within the centre-right that could affect its final share. Scheduled developments such as further defections, alliance negotiations, or shifts in voter turnout among right-leaning blocs could alter positioning before the vote.

Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.

If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market.

Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market.

If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.

If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Data di fine
23 dic 2027
Mercato aperto
Jun 9, 2026, 6:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place Futuro Nazionale near or slightly above the 3% threshold, with June 2026 surveys from firms including SWG and Tecnè showing the nationalist party founded by Roberto Vannacci in February 2026 at 3.8–4.8%. The new movement has drawn support primarily from Lega voters and grown its parliamentary presence through defections, creating uncertainty about long-term consolidation ahead of the election due no later than December 2027. Traders' near-even odds reflect the competitive balance between sustained momentum for the emerging force and risks of fragmentation or coalition realignments within the centre-right that could affect its final share. Scheduled developments such as further defections, alliance negotiations, or shifts in voter turnout among right-leaning blocs could alter positioning before the vote.

Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.

If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market.

Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market.

If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.

If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Data di fine
23 dic 2027
Mercato aperto
Jun 9, 2026, 6:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti alle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti nelle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?" a 53%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 53¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 53% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti alle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Jun 9, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti alle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti alle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?" è "Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti nelle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?" a 53%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 53% a quell'esito. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Futuro Nazionale otterrà almeno il 3% dei voti alle prossime elezioni politiche italiane?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.