The high 83.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock’s 1.5°C deadline will not shift more than 30 days from its current July 22, 2029, target by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the stability of its underlying remaining carbon budget. Anchored to the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate and Global Carbon Project emissions data, the calculation assumes a steady annual rate near 42 GtCO₂ with no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge. Recent 2026 observational stocktakes confirm continued emissions trends without the scale of change needed to trigger a Mercator Research Institute recalculation or major deadline revision. Authoritative updates occur infrequently and are tied to new IPCC assessments or substantial budget revisions, none of which are scheduled before late 2026. This supports trader consensus that the published deadline will remain effectively unchanged through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa scadenza di 1,5° C dell'orologio climatico cambierà entro...?
La scadenza di 1,5° C dell'orologio climatico cambierà entro...?
17% probabilità
$10,678 Vol.
$10,678 Vol.
1 gen 2027
17% probabilità
$10,678 Vol.
$10,678 Vol.
1 gen 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.The high 83.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock’s 1.5°C deadline will not shift more than 30 days from its current July 22, 2029, target by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the stability of its underlying remaining carbon budget. Anchored to the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate and Global Carbon Project emissions data, the calculation assumes a steady annual rate near 42 GtCO₂ with no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge. Recent 2026 observational stocktakes confirm continued emissions trends without the scale of change needed to trigger a Mercator Research Institute recalculation or major deadline revision. Authoritative updates occur infrequently and are tied to new IPCC assessments or substantial budget revisions, none of which are scheduled before late 2026. This supports trader consensus that the published deadline will remain effectively unchanged through year-end.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Mercato aperto: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volume
$10,678Data di fine
31 dic 2029Mercato aperto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.The high 83.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock’s 1.5°C deadline will not shift more than 30 days from its current July 22, 2029, target by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the stability of its underlying remaining carbon budget. Anchored to the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate and Global Carbon Project emissions data, the calculation assumes a steady annual rate near 42 GtCO₂ with no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge. Recent 2026 observational stocktakes confirm continued emissions trends without the scale of change needed to trigger a Mercator Research Institute recalculation or major deadline revision. Authoritative updates occur infrequently and are tied to new IPCC assessments or substantial budget revisions, none of which are scheduled before late 2026. This supports trader consensus that the published deadline will remain effectively unchanged through year-end.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$10,678Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...The high 83.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock’s 1.5°C deadline will not shift more than 30 days from its current July 22, 2029, target by December 31, 2026, stems primarily from the stability of its underlying remaining carbon budget. Anchored to the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate and Global Carbon Project emissions data, the calculation assumes a steady annual rate near 42 GtCO₂ with no abrupt acceleration or mitigation surge. Recent 2026 observational stocktakes confirm continued emissions trends without the scale of change needed to trigger a Mercator Research Institute recalculation or major deadline revision. Authoritative updates occur infrequently and are tied to new IPCC assessments or substantial budget revisions, none of which are scheduled before late 2026. This supports trader consensus that the published deadline will remain effectively unchanged through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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