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Politics·Kamala

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

icon for Will the next elected US president be a woman?
Politics·Kamala

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

19% probabilità
Polymarket

$11,755 Vol.

19% probabilità
Polymarket

$11,755 Vol.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Current trader consensus on an 81.5% probability against a woman winning the 2028 presidential election reflects the early shape of both parties’ fields. Republican frontrunners JD Vance and Marco Rubio, along with other leading names such as Pete Hegseth, dominate early polling and betting markets, while Democratic speculation centers on Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg. Gretchen Whitmer explicitly ruled out a bid in May 2026, and Kamala Harris’s standing has declined after her 2024 loss. The limited number of prominent female contenders with national profiles or clear paths through primaries, combined with historical general-election results for women nominees, supports the current implied odds. No major candidate announcements or shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$11,755
Data di fine
7 nov 2028
Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Current trader consensus on an 81.5% probability against a woman winning the 2028 presidential election reflects the early shape of both parties’ fields. Republican frontrunners JD Vance and Marco Rubio, along with other leading names such as Pete Hegseth, dominate early polling and betting markets, while Democratic speculation centers on Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg. Gretchen Whitmer explicitly ruled out a bid in May 2026, and Kamala Harris’s standing has declined after her 2024 loss. The limited number of prominent female contenders with national profiles or clear paths through primaries, combined with historical general-election results for women nominees, supports the current implied odds. No major candidate announcements or shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$11,755
Data di fine
7 nov 2028
Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Domande frequenti

"Will the next elected US president be a woman?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 19% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 19¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 19% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" ha generato $11.8K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 17, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Will the next elected US president be a woman?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" è 19% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 19% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.