**Traders see little prospect of another U.S. capture of a sitting head of state before year-end, reflected in the 94.5% probability on “No.”** The sole 2026 instance occurred in early January, when U.S. forces conducted a targeted operation in Caracas that detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges and transported him to U.S. custody. Subsequent months have produced no comparable actions against other sovereign leaders, despite ongoing U.S. involvement in regional security matters and high-profile fugitives. Recent developments reinforce the low odds. U.S. efforts have emphasized FBI-led extraditions of non-state fugitives, joint operations against transnational criminal organizations in Latin America, and diplomatic coordination on issues such as organized crime in Peru and Colombia. No official statements, intelligence disclosures, or reporting indicate active planning for ground operations that would meet the market’s criteria of direct U.S. personnel participation in detaining another qualifying head of state. With roughly three-and-a-half months remaining and structural barriers—including international legal norms, diplomatic costs, and shifting U.S. priorities—trader consensus aligns with the absence of visible catalysts for a repeat event.