Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability on Trump creating a tariff dividend by June 30, reflecting the absence of any federal legislation signed or executive action formalizing rebate payments attributed primarily to tariff revenue, despite the November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payouts to low- and middle-income Americans. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European cars and ongoing measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue streams, but a May 7 Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122—following February Supreme Court limits on IEEPA authority—introduces legal uncertainty. With six weeks remaining and administration priorities focused on debt reduction amid fiscal hawk opposition, markets anticipate no qualifying mechanism before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
30 giu 2026
$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability on Trump creating a tariff dividend by June 30, reflecting the absence of any federal legislation signed or executive action formalizing rebate payments attributed primarily to tariff revenue, despite the November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payouts to low- and middle-income Americans. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European cars and ongoing measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue streams, but a May 7 Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122—following February Supreme Court limits on IEEPA authority—introduces legal uncertainty. With six weeks remaining and administration priorities focused on debt reduction amid fiscal hawk opposition, markets anticipate no qualifying mechanism before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$11,462Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability on Trump creating a tariff dividend by June 30, reflecting the absence of any federal legislation signed or executive action formalizing rebate payments attributed primarily to tariff revenue, despite the November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payouts to low- and middle-income Americans. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European cars and ongoing measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue streams, but a May 7 Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122—following February Supreme Court limits on IEEPA authority—introduces legal uncertainty. With six weeks remaining and administration priorities focused on debt reduction amid fiscal hawk opposition, markets anticipate no qualifying mechanism before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,462Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 89.5% implied probability on Trump creating a tariff dividend by June 30, reflecting the absence of any federal legislation signed or executive action formalizing rebate payments attributed primarily to tariff revenue, despite the November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payouts to low- and middle-income Americans. Recent tariff escalations, including the May 1 announcement of 25% duties on European cars and ongoing measures against China, Canada, and Mexico, have generated revenue streams, but a May 7 Court of International Trade ruling invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122—following February Supreme Court limits on IEEPA authority—introduces legal uncertainty. With six weeks remaining and administration priorities focused on debt reduction amid fiscal hawk opposition, markets anticipate no qualifying mechanism before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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