**AI systems have demonstrated gold-medal and even perfect 42/42 performance on IMO 2026 problems through independent and officially graded evaluations, yet the 89.5% market-implied probability on “No” reflects strict criteria for an official win.** Multiple frontier large language models, including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, and Chinese systems like Xiaohongshu’s dots-note-3.0 and Huawei’s Celia, solved all six proof-based problems from the July 2026 Shanghai IMO under time limits or agent frameworks, with some results receiving official IMO committee grading. This marks rapid progress from the 2025 gold-standard results (35/42 by Gemini Deep Think and OpenAI models) to benchmark saturation in 2026. However, the IMO remains a human competition for contestants under 20, and no AI has been entered as a formal participant or awarded an official medal. Traders therefore assign low odds to any near-term rule change or special category that would constitute a true “win,” despite the technical capability now shown on the exact problem set. Upcoming catalysts are limited, with focus shifting to whether labs pursue formal IMO recognition or new benchmarks beyond the saturated 2026 problems.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$10,087 Vol.
$10,087 Vol.
はい
$10,087 Vol.
$10,087 Vol.
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**AI systems have demonstrated gold-medal and even perfect 42/42 performance on IMO 2026 problems through independent and officially graded evaluations, yet the 89.5% market-implied probability on “No” reflects strict criteria for an official win.** Multiple frontier large language models, including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, and Chinese systems like Xiaohongshu’s dots-note-3.0 and Huawei’s Celia, solved all six proof-based problems from the July 2026 Shanghai IMO under time limits or agent frameworks, with some results receiving official IMO committee grading. This marks rapid progress from the 2025 gold-standard results (35/42 by Gemini Deep Think and OpenAI models) to benchmark saturation in 2026. However, the IMO remains a human competition for contestants under 20, and no AI has been entered as a formal participant or awarded an official medal. Traders therefore assign low odds to any near-term rule change or special category that would constitute a true “win,” despite the technical capability now shown on the exact problem set. Upcoming catalysts are limited, with focus shifting to whether labs pursue formal IMO recognition or new benchmarks beyond the saturated 2026 problems.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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