Claude Fable 5's July 1 return after a three-week suspension has tightened the race, with its Mythos-class capabilities topping recent benchmarks in long-horizon coding and agentic tasks while sometimes routing queries to Opus 4.8 for safety. Traders see near-even odds across Fable 5, various Opus 4.6/4.7 "thinking" variants, and Other because Anthropic's lineup evolves quickly through safeguard refinements and release cadence, while external models like GPT-5.5 maintain pressure on general leaderboards. Key differentiators include Fable 5's 1M context and extended autonomy edge versus the more stable, cost-effective Opus reasoning modes, with July 11 resolution hinging on any last-minute benchmark shifts or new drops.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Other 45%
claude-fable-5 44%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking 44%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 44%
新規
新規
2026/07/11
Other
45%
claude-fable-5
44%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
44%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
44%
claude-opus-4-6
44%
Other 45%
claude-fable-5 44%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking 44%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 44%
新規
新規
2026/07/11
Other
$0 Vol.
45%
claude-fable-5
$0 Vol.
44%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$0 Vol.
44%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$0 Vol.
44%
claude-opus-4-6
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Fable 5's July 1 return after a three-week suspension has tightened the race, with its Mythos-class capabilities topping recent benchmarks in long-horizon coding and agentic tasks while sometimes routing queries to Opus 4.8 for safety. Traders see near-even odds across Fable 5, various Opus 4.6/4.7 "thinking" variants, and Other because Anthropic's lineup evolves quickly through safeguard refinements and release cadence, while external models like GPT-5.5 maintain pressure on general leaderboards. Key differentiators include Fable 5's 1M context and extended autonomy edge versus the more stable, cost-effective Opus reasoning modes, with July 11 resolution hinging on any last-minute benchmark shifts or new drops.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Jul 3, 2026, 8:46 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/07/11マーケット開始日
Jul 3, 2026, 8:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Fable 5's July 1 return after a three-week suspension has tightened the race, with its Mythos-class capabilities topping recent benchmarks in long-horizon coding and agentic tasks while sometimes routing queries to Opus 4.8 for safety. Traders see near-even odds across Fable 5, various Opus 4.6/4.7 "thinking" variants, and Other because Anthropic's lineup evolves quickly through safeguard refinements and release cadence, while external models like GPT-5.5 maintain pressure on general leaderboards. Key differentiators include Fable 5's 1M context and extended autonomy edge versus the more stable, cost-effective Opus reasoning modes, with July 11 resolution hinging on any last-minute benchmark shifts or new drops.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$0終了日
2026/07/11マーケット開始日
Jul 3, 2026, 8:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Fable 5's July 1 return after a three-week suspension has tightened the race, with its Mythos-class capabilities topping recent benchmarks in long-horizon coding and agentic tasks while sometimes routing queries to Opus 4.8 for safety. Traders see near-even odds across Fable 5, various Opus 4.6/4.7 "thinking" variants, and Other because Anthropic's lineup evolves quickly through safeguard refinements and release cadence, while external models like GPT-5.5 maintain pressure on general leaderboards. Key differentiators include Fable 5's 1M context and extended autonomy edge versus the more stable, cost-effective Opus reasoning modes, with July 11 resolution hinging on any last-minute benchmark shifts or new drops.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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