Recent Houthi threats and attacks, including the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade and missile strikes on vessels in the Red Sea, have driven sharp declines in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings averaging around 30-40 amid elevated risks. This has reinforced the market's leading <25 outcome at 44.8% implied probability, as rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope persists due to high war-risk premiums and insurance costs. Recent August incidents, such as the attack killing seafarers on a merchant ship, sustain downward pressure on volumes, outweighing minor daily rebounds like the 40 crossings reported on August 11. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in continued uncertainty through month-end absent de-escalation, while the 25-29 bin at 26.5% reflects potential modest stabilization if attacks remain targeted rather than broad.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25未満 44.8%
25〜29 27%
30～34 20%
35～39 8%
$14,964 Vol.
$14,964 Vol.
2026/08/31
25未満
45%
25〜29
27%
30～34
20%
35～39
8%
40以上
4%
25未満 44.8%
25〜29 27%
30～34 20%
35～39 8%
$14,964 Vol.
$14,964 Vol.
2026/08/31
25未満
$2,915 Vol.
45%
25〜29
$3,493 Vol.
27%
30～34
$3,754 Vol.
20%
35～39
$1,063 Vol.
8%
40以上
$3,738 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks, including the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade and missile strikes on vessels in the Red Sea, have driven sharp declines in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings averaging around 30-40 amid elevated risks. This has reinforced the market's leading <25 outcome at 44.8% implied probability, as rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope persists due to high war-risk premiums and insurance costs. Recent August incidents, such as the attack killing seafarers on a merchant ship, sustain downward pressure on volumes, outweighing minor daily rebounds like the 40 crossings reported on August 11. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in continued uncertainty through month-end absent de-escalation, while the 25-29 bin at 26.5% reflects potential modest stabilization if attacks remain targeted rather than broad.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
音量
$14,964終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET結算ソース
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks, including the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade and missile strikes on vessels in the Red Sea, have driven sharp declines in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings averaging around 30-40 amid elevated risks. This has reinforced the market's leading <25 outcome at 44.8% implied probability, as rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope persists due to high war-risk premiums and insurance costs. Recent August incidents, such as the attack killing seafarers on a merchant ship, sustain downward pressure on volumes, outweighing minor daily rebounds like the 40 crossings reported on August 11. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in continued uncertainty through month-end absent de-escalation, while the 25-29 bin at 26.5% reflects potential modest stabilization if attacks remain targeted rather than broad.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$14,964終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET結算ソース
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and attacks, including the July 2026 Saudi shipping blockade and missile strikes on vessels in the Red Sea, have driven sharp declines in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings averaging around 30-40 amid elevated risks. This has reinforced the market's leading <25 outcome at 44.8% implied probability, as rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope persists due to high war-risk premiums and insurance costs. Recent August incidents, such as the attack killing seafarers on a merchant ship, sustain downward pressure on volumes, outweighing minor daily rebounds like the 40 crossings reported on August 11. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in continued uncertainty through month-end absent de-escalation, while the 25-29 bin at 26.5% reflects potential modest stabilization if attacks remain targeted rather than broad.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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