Derek Tran (D), the incumbent, advanced strongly from California's June 2026 top-two primary with 52.5% of the vote, outpacing the leading Republican, Chuong Vo, and four other GOP candidates who split the remainder. Major forecasters rate the November general election as Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying partisan composition and voter registration patterns. Traders have priced in this structural advantage and the absence of major late-cycle shifts or competitive polling movement, resulting in the current implied probability favoring the Democratic nominee. No scheduled events in the immediate term appear positioned to alter the trajectory before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,356 Vol.
$25,356 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
89%
共和党
12%
$25,356 Vol.
$25,356 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$13,885 Vol.
89%
共和党
$11,470 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Derek Tran (D), the incumbent, advanced strongly from California's June 2026 top-two primary with 52.5% of the vote, outpacing the leading Republican, Chuong Vo, and four other GOP candidates who split the remainder. Major forecasters rate the November general election as Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying partisan composition and voter registration patterns. Traders have priced in this structural advantage and the absence of major late-cycle shifts or competitive polling movement, resulting in the current implied probability favoring the Democratic nominee. No scheduled events in the immediate term appear positioned to alter the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$25,356終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Derek Tran (D), the incumbent, advanced strongly from California's June 2026 top-two primary with 52.5% of the vote, outpacing the leading Republican, Chuong Vo, and four other GOP candidates who split the remainder. Major forecasters rate the November general election as Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying partisan composition and voter registration patterns. Traders have priced in this structural advantage and the absence of major late-cycle shifts or competitive polling movement, resulting in the current implied probability favoring the Democratic nominee. No scheduled events in the immediate term appear positioned to alter the trajectory before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,356終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Derek Tran (D), the incumbent, advanced strongly from California's June 2026 top-two primary with 52.5% of the vote, outpacing the leading Republican, Chuong Vo, and four other GOP candidates who split the remainder. Major forecasters rate the November general election as Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the district's underlying partisan composition and voter registration patterns. Traders have priced in this structural advantage and the absence of major late-cycle shifts or competitive polling movement, resulting in the current implied probability favoring the Democratic nominee. No scheduled events in the immediate term appear positioned to alter the trajectory before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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