Recent legal maneuvering around Spain’s 2024 amnesty law drives the market’s 55.5% implied probability for a Puigdemont return by year-end. The July CJEU ruling upheld the law’s EU compatibility, yet the Supreme Court’s mid-September rejection of amnesty for misappropriation charges kept the arrest warrant active. Traders appear to price in an imminent Constitutional Court decision expected in October that could lift barriers, aligning with Puigdemont’s recent Sunday Times comments expressing readiness to “immerse himself” in today’s Catalonia and floating possible autumn timelines. Historical precedent of judicial delays and the leader’s cautious tone introduce uncertainty, but momentum from political deals and precursor signals tilts consensus toward a late-2026 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日56% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
56% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent legal maneuvering around Spain’s 2024 amnesty law drives the market’s 55.5% implied probability for a Puigdemont return by year-end. The July CJEU ruling upheld the law’s EU compatibility, yet the Supreme Court’s mid-September rejection of amnesty for misappropriation charges kept the arrest warrant active. Traders appear to price in an imminent Constitutional Court decision expected in October that could lift barriers, aligning with Puigdemont’s recent Sunday Times comments expressing readiness to “immerse himself” in today’s Catalonia and floating possible autumn timelines. Historical precedent of judicial delays and the leader’s cautious tone introduce uncertainty, but momentum from political deals and precursor signals tilts consensus toward a late-2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
マーケット開始日： Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
音量
$7,483終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent legal maneuvering around Spain’s 2024 amnesty law drives the market’s 55.5% implied probability for a Puigdemont return by year-end. The July CJEU ruling upheld the law’s EU compatibility, yet the Supreme Court’s mid-September rejection of amnesty for misappropriation charges kept the arrest warrant active. Traders appear to price in an imminent Constitutional Court decision expected in October that could lift barriers, aligning with Puigdemont’s recent Sunday Times comments expressing readiness to “immerse himself” in today’s Catalonia and floating possible autumn timelines. Historical precedent of judicial delays and the leader’s cautious tone introduce uncertainty, but momentum from political deals and precursor signals tilts consensus toward a late-2026 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
音量
$7,483終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent legal maneuvering around Spain’s 2024 amnesty law drives the market’s 55.5% implied probability for a Puigdemont return by year-end. The July CJEU ruling upheld the law’s EU compatibility, yet the Supreme Court’s mid-September rejection of amnesty for misappropriation charges kept the arrest warrant active. Traders appear to price in an imminent Constitutional Court decision expected in October that could lift barriers, aligning with Puigdemont’s recent Sunday Times comments expressing readiness to “immerse himself” in today’s Catalonia and floating possible autumn timelines. Historical precedent of judicial delays and the leader’s cautious tone introduce uncertainty, but momentum from political deals and precursor signals tilts consensus toward a late-2026 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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