Recent Supreme Court rulings blocking amnesty coverage for embezzlement charges have kept arrest warrants active, creating the tight 53.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 return while Puigdemont’s Constitutional Court appeal and favorable EU precedent build counter-momentum. Trader sentiment reflects this judicial tug-of-war, with the leader of Junts preparing multiple return scenarios amid ongoing coalition dynamics and no full legal clearance yet. The Constitutional Court’s imminent deliberations and October decision stand as the decisive swing factor, potentially prompting warrant suspension and enabling a safe reentry before year-end. Historical precedent shows such high-stakes legal campaigns can shift rapidly on final rulings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日57% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
57% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent Supreme Court rulings blocking amnesty coverage for embezzlement charges have kept arrest warrants active, creating the tight 53.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 return while Puigdemont’s Constitutional Court appeal and favorable EU precedent build counter-momentum. Trader sentiment reflects this judicial tug-of-war, with the leader of Junts preparing multiple return scenarios amid ongoing coalition dynamics and no full legal clearance yet. The Constitutional Court’s imminent deliberations and October decision stand as the decisive swing factor, potentially prompting warrant suspension and enabling a safe reentry before year-end. Historical precedent shows such high-stakes legal campaigns can shift rapidly on final rulings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
マーケット開始日： Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
音量
$7,481終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.Recent Supreme Court rulings blocking amnesty coverage for embezzlement charges have kept arrest warrants active, creating the tight 53.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 return while Puigdemont’s Constitutional Court appeal and favorable EU precedent build counter-momentum. Trader sentiment reflects this judicial tug-of-war, with the leader of Junts preparing multiple return scenarios amid ongoing coalition dynamics and no full legal clearance yet. The Constitutional Court’s imminent deliberations and October decision stand as the decisive swing factor, potentially prompting warrant suspension and enabling a safe reentry before year-end. Historical precedent shows such high-stakes legal campaigns can shift rapidly on final rulings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
音量
$7,481終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 26, 2026, 12:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent Supreme Court rulings blocking amnesty coverage for embezzlement charges have kept arrest warrants active, creating the tight 53.5% market-implied odds for a 2026 return while Puigdemont’s Constitutional Court appeal and favorable EU precedent build counter-momentum. Trader sentiment reflects this judicial tug-of-war, with the leader of Junts preparing multiple return scenarios amid ongoing coalition dynamics and no full legal clearance yet. The Constitutional Court’s imminent deliberations and October decision stand as the decisive swing factor, potentially prompting warrant suspension and enabling a safe reentry before year-end. Historical precedent shows such high-stakes legal campaigns can shift rapidly on final rulings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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