Recent polling averages place the PP ahead of the PSOE by roughly five points nationally and by a similar margin in Jaén projections, supporting the 66% trader consensus on PP as the leading outcome for the November 29 general election. Jaén’s five-seat allocation favors the PP under current vote-share estimates around 39%, ahead of the PSOE near 32% and Vox near 21%. PSOE’s 20.5% market price aligns with its weaker national standing and limited regional momentum in Andalusia. Vox remains low at 1.1% amid its third-place positioning. The snap election timing and consistent survey trends from multiple pollsters have reinforced these relative probabilities in the weeks before voting.