The fragmentation of Spain’s left-wing vote, following the collapse of nationwide coalition talks between Podemos and the Broad Front alliance, stands as the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring zero or one seat for Podemos in the November 29 general election. With polling placing the party near 2–3 percent nationally and separate candidacies from Sumar and other groups in most provinces, the D’Hondt method in smaller districts limits representation even when combined left support exceeds thresholds. Limited regional pacts in areas such as the Canary Islands and Valencia, plus an arrangement backing ERC in Catalonia, offer narrow paths to a single seat in strongholds like Madrid, yet internal divisions and low visibility keep outcomes tightly contested between zero and one seat. Late campaign shifts in turnout among progressive voters or minor polling adjustments could still determine whether the party clears the effective barrier in key constituencies.