Recent polling averages project the center-right PP and far-right Vox together securing 190–205 seats in the 350-seat Congress, compared with roughly 145–155 for the PSOE-led left bloc, pointing to a right margin of 40–60 seats. This positioning stems from Pedro Sánchez calling a snap election for November 29 after parliament rejected housing decrees, amid ongoing protests over rents and evictions. The move has not reversed the PSOE’s deficit, as corruption cases, migrant pressures at Ceuta, and rail incidents have weighed on support while left-wing parties remain fragmented. With the campaign now underway, the right bloc’s consistent lead across most surveys explains the elevated probabilities assigned to those specific right-margin outcomes in trader assessments.