The high 89.5% probability for no charges against former Representative Eric Swalwell by May 31 reflects the early stage of ongoing federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations that surfaced in early April 2026. Multiple women have accused Swalwell of assault and harassment, prompting his resignation from Congress and withdrawal from the California gubernatorial race, but the Department of Justice opened its probe only in mid-April alongside separate reviews by Los Angeles and Manhattan district attorneys. Prosecutorial charging decisions in cases involving former members of Congress typically involve extended evidence review, witness interviews, and internal approvals that extend well beyond a two-week window. No indictments or formal complaints have been filed to date, and no public statements from the DOJ indicate an expedited timeline before the end of May.