Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice via impeachment despite repeated petitions, including recent ones targeting Alexandre de Moraes and others. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes narrowed standing to initiate such proceedings primarily to the Prosecutor-General while raising procedural thresholds, limiting congressional action. Ongoing congressional inquiries, such as the Banco Master CPI report recommending proceedings against several justices, have not advanced past the Senate leadership, which has historically declined to pursue cases. With only months remaining until the 2027 deadline and a two-thirds Senate vote required for conviction on charges of responsibility, trader consensus at 96.6% for “No” reflects these structural barriers and precedent. Realistic shifts could still occur if the incoming Senate composition after 2026 elections prioritizes judicial oversight or if new primary-source evidence prompts rapid floor action, though both face significant institutional and timing constraints.