**Recent developments center on a Banco Master bank scandal that surfaced publicly in early September 2026, involving alleged ties between Justice Alexandre de Moraes, his wife’s law firm (a roughly $24–25 million consulting contract), and jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro.** Federal Police reports revealed messages between Moraes and Vorcaro; opposition senators and some media outlets responded with editorials urging resignation or impeachment and filed dozens of new petitions (reaching around 55 active requests against him). Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has not declared the requests admissible, and Brazilian rules give the chamber president sole gatekeeping authority over impeachment proceedings against justices. Removal would require a two-thirds Senate majority (54 of 81 votes), a threshold the opposition has not demonstrated it can reach amid partisan divisions. The Lula government and STF leadership have shown no support for ouster. Internally, Chief Justice Edson Fachin removed Moraes from the long-running “fake news” inquiry in early September to contain institutional fallout, but Moraes retains his vice-presidency of the court, relatoria over other major cases, and full judicial functions. The STF itself postponed any decision on opening an unprecedented internal probe of Moraes after a procedural request for more time (up to 90 days), with the matter now tied to the October presidential election calendar. These barriers—procedural hurdles in the Senate, lack of supermajority support, ongoing STF protections, and the justice’s retained institutional power—explain why traders assign an 85.5% implied probability that Moraes will not be removed from the court. The controversy remains active and politically charged, yet no resolution mechanism has advanced far enough to alter the prevailing assessment.