**Traders assign an 83% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF), reflecting the high institutional barriers to removal and the current procedural impasse.** Moraes, appointed in 2017, holds tenure until mandatory retirement at 75. Removal requires Senate impeachment proceedings, a threshold that has rarely succeeded against STF justices. Recent revelations in the Banco Master fraud investigation—including a large contract between the justice’s wife’s firm and the bank plus intercepted messages—prompted dozens of impeachment petitions, media editorials urging resignation or Senate action, and public calls from opposition figures. However, the STF’s internal handling has slowed momentum. Chief Justice Edson Fachin reassigned Moraes from the “fake news” inquiry and the full court’s September 15 session ended in deadlock and a “vista” request, postponing any decision on opening a probe for up to 90 days—likely past the October presidential election. With the next Senate composition potentially decisive for any impeachment vote and Lula-aligned justices holding influence, the combination of procedural delays, political alignments, and constitutional protections supports the strong market consensus against removal in the near term.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$87,593 Vol.
$87,593 Vol.
はい
$87,593 Vol.
$87,593 Vol.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日: Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 83% probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF), reflecting the high institutional barriers to removal and the current procedural impasse.** Moraes, appointed in 2017, holds tenure until mandatory retirement at 75. Removal requires Senate impeachment proceedings, a threshold that has rarely succeeded against STF justices. Recent revelations in the Banco Master fraud investigation—including a large contract between the justice’s wife’s firm and the bank plus intercepted messages—prompted dozens of impeachment petitions, media editorials urging resignation or Senate action, and public calls from opposition figures. However, the STF’s internal handling has slowed momentum. Chief Justice Edson Fachin reassigned Moraes from the “fake news” inquiry and the full court’s September 15 session ended in deadlock and a “vista” request, postponing any decision on opening a probe for up to 90 days—likely past the October presidential election. With the next Senate composition potentially decisive for any impeachment vote and Lula-aligned justices holding influence, the combination of procedural delays, political alignments, and constitutional protections supports the strong market consensus against removal in the near term.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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