**Traders assign an 83% probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because Senate impeachment petitions, while numerous, face steep procedural barriers and lack scheduling by the chamber’s leadership.** Dozens of requests have accumulated in recent weeks amid allegations tied to the Banco Master fraud investigation, including reported messages involving the justice and a large consulting contract held by his wife’s firm. However, no STF justice has ever been removed through Senate proceedings, which require a two-thirds majority. An internal court session on opening an investigation into Moraes was postponed until after the October presidential election, and Chief Justice Edson Fachin separately removed him from a long-running fake-news inquiry. These institutional checks and stalled processes underpin the current trader consensus.