Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven by the ongoing federal trial in Oakland where no out-of-court deal materialized despite Musk's last-minute outreach to OpenAI President Greg Brockman just before proceedings began in late April. Recent testimony from Altman on May 12 portrayed Musk as demanding up to 90% equity control in OpenAI's early days—undermining claims of nonprofit betrayal—and highlighted Musk's competitive motivations via xAI amid Grok's struggles against ChatGPT. A prior dismissal of fraud claims further narrowed Musk's path to massive damages, now seeking $150 billion plus leadership ousters. Closing arguments loom in 1-2 weeks, but regulatory scrutiny on AI governance and OpenAI's Microsoft-backed defenses solidify trader skepticism, though a surprise mid-trial settlement or favorable verdict could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$79,324 Vol.
$79,324 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$79,324 Vol.
$79,324 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven by the ongoing federal trial in Oakland where no out-of-court deal materialized despite Musk's last-minute outreach to OpenAI President Greg Brockman just before proceedings began in late April. Recent testimony from Altman on May 12 portrayed Musk as demanding up to 90% equity control in OpenAI's early days—undermining claims of nonprofit betrayal—and highlighted Musk's competitive motivations via xAI amid Grok's struggles against ChatGPT. A prior dismissal of fraud claims further narrowed Musk's path to massive damages, now seeking $150 billion plus leadership ousters. Closing arguments loom in 1-2 weeks, but regulatory scrutiny on AI governance and OpenAI's Microsoft-backed defenses solidify trader skepticism, though a surprise mid-trial settlement or favorable verdict could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
音量
$79,324終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven by the ongoing federal trial in Oakland where no out-of-court deal materialized despite Musk's last-minute outreach to OpenAI President Greg Brockman just before proceedings began in late April. Recent testimony from Altman on May 12 portrayed Musk as demanding up to 90% equity control in OpenAI's early days—undermining claims of nonprofit betrayal—and highlighted Musk's competitive motivations via xAI amid Grok's struggles against ChatGPT. A prior dismissal of fraud claims further narrowed Musk's path to massive damages, now seeking $150 billion plus leadership ousters. Closing arguments loom in 1-2 weeks, but regulatory scrutiny on AI governance and OpenAI's Microsoft-backed defenses solidify trader skepticism, though a surprise mid-trial settlement or favorable verdict could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$79,324終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI, driven by the ongoing federal trial in Oakland where no out-of-court deal materialized despite Musk's last-minute outreach to OpenAI President Greg Brockman just before proceedings began in late April. Recent testimony from Altman on May 12 portrayed Musk as demanding up to 90% equity control in OpenAI's early days—undermining claims of nonprofit betrayal—and highlighted Musk's competitive motivations via xAI amid Grok's struggles against ChatGPT. A prior dismissal of fraud claims further narrowed Musk's path to massive damages, now seeking $150 billion plus leadership ousters. Closing arguments loom in 1-2 weeks, but regulatory scrutiny on AI governance and OpenAI's Microsoft-backed defenses solidify trader skepticism, though a surprise mid-trial settlement or favorable verdict could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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