The Supreme Court’s March 23 oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee revealed a clear conservative majority inclined to hold that federal statutes fixing Election Day require all mail ballots to be received by that date, effectively invalidating grace periods in Mississippi and more than a dozen other states. Justices questioned whether post-Election Day receipt violates the uniform national deadline, with several conservative members signaling support for the Republican National Committee’s position. A decision is expected by late June or early July, directly before the 2026 midterms. Traders have therefore priced the “yes” outcome—SCOTUS barring late counting—at 73.5 percent, reflecting the Court’s composition and the arguments’ trajectory rather than any final ruling.