Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to fewer than five posts from Iran's Supreme Leader during the May 19–26 window, consistent with his established pattern of limited direct social media activity. Official statements and formal addresses through state channels continue to serve as his primary mode of communication, with posting frequency remaining low absent acute crises or scheduled high-level summits. No major diplomatic deadlines, leadership transitions, or regional escalations are currently set to occur in the immediate period that would alter this baseline. The market's secondary probabilities on the 5–9 and higher ranges reflect the possibility of isolated announcements tied to routine policy matters or external developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<5 70%
5-9 22%
10-14 18%
60+ 17.3%
新規
新規
2026/05/26
<5
70%
5-9
22%
10-14
18%
15-19
1%
20-24
1%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
1%
40-44
1%
45-49
4%
50-54
16%
55-59
16%
60+
17%
<5 70%
5-9 22%
10-14 18%
60+ 17.3%
新規
新規
2026/05/26
<5
$30 Vol.
70%
5-9
$5 Vol.
22%
10-14
$5 Vol.
18%
15-19
$10 Vol.
1%
20-24
$10 Vol.
1%
25-29
$10 Vol.
1%
30-34
$10 Vol.
1%
35-39
$10 Vol.
1%
40-44
$10 Vol.
1%
45-49
$25 Vol.
4%
50-54
$25 Vol.
16%
55-59
$30 Vol.
16%
60+
$30 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to fewer than five posts from Iran's Supreme Leader during the May 19–26 window, consistent with his established pattern of limited direct social media activity. Official statements and formal addresses through state channels continue to serve as his primary mode of communication, with posting frequency remaining low absent acute crises or scheduled high-level summits. No major diplomatic deadlines, leadership transitions, or regional escalations are currently set to occur in the immediate period that would alter this baseline. The market's secondary probabilities on the 5–9 and higher ranges reflect the possibility of isolated announcements tied to routine policy matters or external developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： May 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
音量
$208終了日
2026/05/26マーケット開始日
May 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to fewer than five posts from Iran's Supreme Leader during the May 19–26 window, consistent with his established pattern of limited direct social media activity. Official statements and formal addresses through state channels continue to serve as his primary mode of communication, with posting frequency remaining low absent acute crises or scheduled high-level summits. No major diplomatic deadlines, leadership transitions, or regional escalations are currently set to occur in the immediate period that would alter this baseline. The market's secondary probabilities on the 5–9 and higher ranges reflect the possibility of isolated announcements tied to routine policy matters or external developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 19, 12:00 PM ET and May 26, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$208終了日
2026/05/26マーケット開始日
May 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ETTrader consensus assigns the highest probability to fewer than five posts from Iran's Supreme Leader during the May 19–26 window, consistent with his established pattern of limited direct social media activity. Official statements and formal addresses through state channels continue to serve as his primary mode of communication, with posting frequency remaining low absent acute crises or scheduled high-level summits. No major diplomatic deadlines, leadership transitions, or regional escalations are currently set to occur in the immediate period that would alter this baseline. The market's secondary probabilities on the 5–9 and higher ranges reflect the possibility of isolated announcements tied to routine policy matters or external developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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