The @khamenei_ir account’s established pattern of infrequent activity underpins the strong trader consensus favoring fewer than five posts for May 12–19. Following the February 2026 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the account has issued statements in irregular bursts rather than on a daily schedule, typically tied to specific diplomatic or domestic developments. Mid-May conditions show no acute regional crises or scheduled announcements requiring new content, consistent with quieter intervals observed in prior weeks. This historical baseline, combined with the absence of fresh catalysts through May 16, has concentrated implied probability on the lowest outcome brackets while leaving room for limited additional posts if routine statements appear before May 19.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<5 74%
5-9 10%
15-19 2.3%
10-14 2.1%
$10,334 Vol.
$10,334 Vol.
2026/05/19
<5
82%
5-9
10%
10-14
2%
15-19
2%
20-24
1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 74%
5-9 10%
15-19 2.3%
10-14 2.1%
$10,334 Vol.
$10,334 Vol.
2026/05/19
<5
$1,912 Vol.
82%
5-9
$1,760 Vol.
10%
10-14
$587 Vol.
2%
15-19
$1,123 Vol.
2%
20-24
$806 Vol.
1%
25-29
$401 Vol.
<1%
30-34
$458 Vol.
1%
35-39
$443 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$596 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$484 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$489 Vol.
<1%
55-59
$609 Vol.
<1%
60+
$666 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The @khamenei_ir account’s established pattern of infrequent activity underpins the strong trader consensus favoring fewer than five posts for May 12–19. Following the February 2026 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the account has issued statements in irregular bursts rather than on a daily schedule, typically tied to specific diplomatic or domestic developments. Mid-May conditions show no acute regional crises or scheduled announcements requiring new content, consistent with quieter intervals observed in prior weeks. This historical baseline, combined with the absence of fresh catalysts through May 16, has concentrated implied probability on the lowest outcome brackets while leaving room for limited additional posts if routine statements appear before May 19.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ET
音量
$10,334終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.The @khamenei_ir account’s established pattern of infrequent activity underpins the strong trader consensus favoring fewer than five posts for May 12–19. Following the February 2026 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the account has issued statements in irregular bursts rather than on a daily schedule, typically tied to specific diplomatic or domestic developments. Mid-May conditions show no acute regional crises or scheduled announcements requiring new content, consistent with quieter intervals observed in prior weeks. This historical baseline, combined with the absence of fresh catalysts through May 16, has concentrated implied probability on the lowest outcome brackets while leaving room for limited additional posts if routine statements appear before May 19.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$10,334終了日
2026/05/19マーケット開始日
May 9, 2026, 3:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The @khamenei_ir account’s established pattern of infrequent activity underpins the strong trader consensus favoring fewer than five posts for May 12–19. Following the February 2026 assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the account has issued statements in irregular bursts rather than on a daily schedule, typically tied to specific diplomatic or domestic developments. Mid-May conditions show no acute regional crises or scheduled announcements requiring new content, consistent with quieter intervals observed in prior weeks. This historical baseline, combined with the absence of fresh catalysts through May 16, has concentrated implied probability on the lowest outcome brackets while leaving room for limited additional posts if routine statements appear before May 19.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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