Trader consensus on this market reflects the Supreme Leader's established pattern of issuing infrequent written statements primarily in response to major geopolitical developments rather than routine commentary. Ongoing frictions involving the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear capabilities, and regional security have generated occasional posts in recent weeks, yet the absence of acute new escalations in the past several days has kept volume low. The tight spread between the sub-5 and 5-9 bins captures uncertainty over whether diplomatic or military signals will prompt additional releases during the window or whether conditions will remain quiet enough for minimal activity. Any sudden shift in U.S.-Iran or Israel-Iran dynamics before May 22 could separate the leading outcomes by triggering more official messaging.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日＜5 44%
55〜59 40.9%
45～49 40.1%
50～54 40.0%
新規
新規
2026/05/22
＜5
44%
5〜9
49%
10〜14
23%
15〜19
40%
20～24
40%
25〜29
40%
30〜34
36%
35～39
40%
40～44
6%
45～49
40%
50～54
40%
55〜59
41%
60件以上
22%
＜5 44%
55〜59 40.9%
45～49 40.1%
50～54 40.0%
新規
新規
2026/05/22
＜5
$214 Vol.
44%
5〜9
$62 Vol.
49%
10〜14
$71 Vol.
23%
15〜19
$44 Vol.
40%
20～24
$40 Vol.
40%
25〜29
$40 Vol.
40%
30〜34
$85 Vol.
36%
35～39
$61 Vol.
40%
40～44
$140 Vol.
6%
45～49
$70 Vol.
40%
50～54
$69 Vol.
40%
55〜59
$55 Vol.
41%
60件以上
$123 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on this market reflects the Supreme Leader's established pattern of issuing infrequent written statements primarily in response to major geopolitical developments rather than routine commentary. Ongoing frictions involving the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear capabilities, and regional security have generated occasional posts in recent weeks, yet the absence of acute new escalations in the past several days has kept volume low. The tight spread between the sub-5 and 5-9 bins captures uncertainty over whether diplomatic or military signals will prompt additional releases during the window or whether conditions will remain quiet enough for minimal activity. Any sudden shift in U.S.-Iran or Israel-Iran dynamics before May 22 could separate the leading outcomes by triggering more official messaging.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
音量
$1,075終了日
2026/05/22マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on this market reflects the Supreme Leader's established pattern of issuing infrequent written statements primarily in response to major geopolitical developments rather than routine commentary. Ongoing frictions involving the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear capabilities, and regional security have generated occasional posts in recent weeks, yet the absence of acute new escalations in the past several days has kept volume low. The tight spread between the sub-5 and 5-9 bins captures uncertainty over whether diplomatic or military signals will prompt additional releases during the window or whether conditions will remain quiet enough for minimal activity. Any sudden shift in U.S.-Iran or Israel-Iran dynamics before May 22 could separate the leading outcomes by triggering more official messaging.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 15, 12:00 PM ET and May 22, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$1,075終了日
2026/05/22マーケット開始日
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on this market reflects the Supreme Leader's established pattern of issuing infrequent written statements primarily in response to major geopolitical developments rather than routine commentary. Ongoing frictions involving the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear capabilities, and regional security have generated occasional posts in recent weeks, yet the absence of acute new escalations in the past several days has kept volume low. The tight spread between the sub-5 and 5-9 bins captures uncertainty over whether diplomatic or military signals will prompt additional releases during the window or whether conditions will remain quiet enough for minimal activity. Any sudden shift in U.S.-Iran or Israel-Iran dynamics before May 22 could separate the leading outcomes by triggering more official messaging.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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