This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s chief scientist Jakub Pachocki recently described GPT-5.6 internally as a “meaningful improvement” over the current GPT-5.5 flagship, fueling speculation of a late-June public release. Leaks in Codex traces and internal codenames have surfaced alongside reports of a 1.5-million-token context window aimed at complex codebases. Traders on prediction markets have placed over $960,000 in volume, assigning roughly 83% implied probability to a June 22–28 window amid competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Chinese models like GLM-5.2 that have posted stronger benchmark results. OpenAI’s planned IPO filing adds urgency to maintain frontier positioning, though no official model card, benchmarks, or announcement has appeared as of June 18. Any slippage in testing or last-minute safety reviews could shift the timeline into July.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
OpenAI’s chief scientist Jakub Pachocki recently described GPT-5.6 internally as a “meaningful improvement” over the current GPT-5.5 flagship, fueling speculation of a late-June public release. Leaks in Codex traces and internal codenames have surfaced alongside reports of a 1.5-million-token context window aimed at complex codebases. Traders on prediction markets have placed over $960,000 in volume, assigning roughly 83% implied probability to a June 22–28 window amid competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Chinese models like GLM-5.2 that have posted stronger benchmark results. OpenAI’s planned IPO filing adds urgency to maintain frontier positioning, though no official model card, benchmarks, or announcement has appeared as of June 18. Any slippage in testing or last-minute safety reviews could shift the timeline into July.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Engages with White House on GPT-5.6 Launch and Safety Framework
July 13 surges to 94%47%
Sam Altman met with White House officials in early June 2026 to discuss GPT-5.6's release and safety measures, indicating government involvement in the phased rollout and supporting eventual broader public access.
Jun 26 2026
OpenAI Details GPT-5.6 Capabilities and Safety Features in Preview Announcement
July 10 surges to 92%47%
OpenAI previewed GPT-5.6 Sol as its strongest model yet with advanced reasoning, cybersecurity, and coding capabilities, alongside robust safety measures, reinforcing expectations for a significant upgrade and eventual public release.
Jun 26 2026
OpenAI Launches GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna in Limited Preview at U.S. Government Request
July 9 surges to 88%26%
OpenAI officially announced GPT-5.6 models Sol, Terra, and Luna, releasing them in a limited preview to a small group of trusted partners due to a U.S. government request for controlled access, with plans for broader availability in the coming weeks.
Jun 11 2026
OpenAI Chief Scientist Describes GPT-5.6 as a Meaningful Improvement Over GPT-5.5
July 8 surges to 84%37%
OpenAI's chief scientist Jakub Pachocki sent an internal message describing GPT-5.6 as a meaningful leap over GPT-5.5, signaling late-stage preparation for launch and boosting market confidence in a near-term release.
Jun 8 2026
No official GPT-5.6 release or public availability as of early June
July 31 rises to 98%1%
As of June 8, 2026, OpenAI had not officially announced or made GPT-5.6 publicly accessible. Official materials and model catalogs still listed GPT-5.5 as the current frontier model, indicating GPT-5.6 was not yet released to the general public.
Jun 1 2026
Prediction markets price high probability of GPT-5.6 release by June 30
July 31 jumps to 97%5%
By early June, prediction markets like Polymarket priced an 89% chance of GPT-5.6 being publicly released by June 30, reflecting strong community expectations based on leaks and OpenAI's rapid release cadence, despite no official confirmation from OpenAI.
May 28 2026
OpenAI updates GPT-5.5 Instant to improve conversational quality
July 31 jumps to 94%8%
On May 28, OpenAI released an update to GPT-5.5 Instant enhancing response style and reducing hallucinations. This reinforced GPT-5.5's role as the current public model and suggested GPT-5.6 was still in development, not yet publicly available.
May 13 2026
GPT-5.6 briefly appears in OpenAI's Codex internal rollout logs
July 31 jumps to 90%6%
A single routing entry referencing GPT-5.6 was spotted in OpenAI's Codex backend logs, indicating internal testing of the model. This leak fueled market speculation and increased the probability of a GPT-5.6 release by June 30, though no public release or official announcement followed immediately.
May 5 2026
OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 Instant as new default ChatGPT model
July 31 jumps to 94%10%
On May 5, 2026, OpenAI rolled out GPT-5.5 Instant to all ChatGPT users, replacing GPT-5.3 Instant as the default. This update improved conversational quality and personalization, reinforcing GPT-5.5's position as the current public model and delaying any immediate GPT-5.6 release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s chief scientist Jakub Pachocki recently described GPT-5.6 internally as a “meaningful improvement” over the current GPT-5.5 flagship, fueling speculation of a late-June public release. Leaks in Codex traces and internal codenames have surfaced alongside reports of a 1.5-million-token context window aimed at complex codebases. Traders on prediction markets have placed over $960,000 in volume, assigning roughly 83% implied probability to a June 22–28 window amid competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Chinese models like GLM-5.2 that have posted stronger benchmark results. OpenAI’s planned IPO filing adds urgency to maintain frontier positioning, though no official model card, benchmarks, or announcement has appeared as of June 18. Any slippage in testing or last-minute safety reviews could shift the timeline into July.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
OpenAI’s chief scientist Jakub Pachocki recently described GPT-5.6 internally as a “meaningful improvement” over the current GPT-5.5 flagship, fueling speculation of a late-June public release. Leaks in Codex traces and internal codenames have surfaced alongside reports of a 1.5-million-token context window aimed at complex codebases. Traders on prediction markets have placed over $960,000 in volume, assigning roughly 83% implied probability to a June 22–28 window amid competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Opus 4.8 and Chinese models like GLM-5.2 that have posted stronger benchmark results. OpenAI’s planned IPO filing adds urgency to maintain frontier positioning, though no official model card, benchmarks, or announcement has appeared as of June 18. Any slippage in testing or last-minute safety reviews could shift the timeline into July.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Engages with White House on GPT-5.6 Launch and Safety Framework
July 13 surges to 94%47%
Sam Altman met with White House officials in early June 2026 to discuss GPT-5.6's release and safety measures, indicating government involvement in the phased rollout and supporting eventual broader public access.
Jun 26 2026
OpenAI Details GPT-5.6 Capabilities and Safety Features in Preview Announcement
July 10 surges to 92%47%
OpenAI previewed GPT-5.6 Sol as its strongest model yet with advanced reasoning, cybersecurity, and coding capabilities, alongside robust safety measures, reinforcing expectations for a significant upgrade and eventual public release.
Jun 26 2026
OpenAI Launches GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna in Limited Preview at U.S. Government Request
July 9 surges to 88%26%
OpenAI officially announced GPT-5.6 models Sol, Terra, and Luna, releasing them in a limited preview to a small group of trusted partners due to a U.S. government request for controlled access, with plans for broader availability in the coming weeks.
Jun 11 2026
OpenAI Chief Scientist Describes GPT-5.6 as a Meaningful Improvement Over GPT-5.5
July 8 surges to 84%37%
OpenAI's chief scientist Jakub Pachocki sent an internal message describing GPT-5.6 as a meaningful leap over GPT-5.5, signaling late-stage preparation for launch and boosting market confidence in a near-term release.
Jun 8 2026
No official GPT-5.6 release or public availability as of early June
July 31 rises to 98%1%
As of June 8, 2026, OpenAI had not officially announced or made GPT-5.6 publicly accessible. Official materials and model catalogs still listed GPT-5.5 as the current frontier model, indicating GPT-5.6 was not yet released to the general public.
Jun 1 2026
Prediction markets price high probability of GPT-5.6 release by June 30
July 31 jumps to 97%5%
By early June, prediction markets like Polymarket priced an 89% chance of GPT-5.6 being publicly released by June 30, reflecting strong community expectations based on leaks and OpenAI's rapid release cadence, despite no official confirmation from OpenAI.
May 28 2026
OpenAI updates GPT-5.5 Instant to improve conversational quality
July 31 jumps to 94%8%
On May 28, OpenAI released an update to GPT-5.5 Instant enhancing response style and reducing hallucinations. This reinforced GPT-5.5's role as the current public model and suggested GPT-5.6 was still in development, not yet publicly available.
May 13 2026
GPT-5.6 briefly appears in OpenAI's Codex internal rollout logs
July 31 jumps to 90%6%
A single routing entry referencing GPT-5.6 was spotted in OpenAI's Codex backend logs, indicating internal testing of the model. This leak fueled market speculation and increased the probability of a GPT-5.6 release by June 30, though no public release or official announcement followed immediately.
May 5 2026
OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 Instant as new default ChatGPT model
July 31 jumps to 94%10%
On May 5, 2026, OpenAI rolled out GPT-5.5 Instant to all ChatGPT users, replacing GPT-5.3 Instant as the default. This update improved conversational quality and personalization, reinforcing GPT-5.5's position as the current public model and delaying any immediate GPT-5.6 release.
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問
「GPT-5.6 released by...?」はPolymarket上の20個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「July 24」で99%、次いで「July 31」が99%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、99¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に99%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。
本日現在、「GPT-5.6 released by...?」は$2.5 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Apr 28, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。
「GPT-5.6 released by...?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている20個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。
「GPT-5.6 released by...?」の現在のフロントランナーは「July 24」で99%であり、市場がこの結果に99%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「July 31」で99%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。
「GPT-5.6 released by...?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。
はい。情報を得るために取引する必要はありません。このページは「GPT-5.6 released by...?」のライブトラッカーとして機能します。結果の確率は新しい取引が入るにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。このページをブックマークし、コメントセクションで他のトレーダーの意見を確認できます。チャートの時間範囲フィルターを使用して、オッズが時間とともにどのように変化したかを確認することもできます。市場が何を予測しているかを無料でリアルタイムに見ることができます。
Polymarketのオッズは、自分の信念に実際のお金を投じる本物のトレーダーによって設定されており、正確な予測を生み出す傾向があります。“GPT-5.6 released by...?”で$2.5 millionが取引されており、これらの価格は何千人もの参加者の集合的な知識と確信を集約しています——世論調査、専門家の予測、従来の調査を上回ることも多いです。Polymarketのような予測市場は、特にイベントが決済日に近づくにつれて、精度の実績が優れています。例えば、Polymarketの1ヶ月精度スコアは94%です。Polymarketの予測精度に関する最新統計は、 精度ページをご覧ください。
「GPT-5.6 released by...?」で最初の取引を行うには、無料のPolymarketアカウントに登録し、暗号通貨、クレジットカードまたはデビットカード、銀行振込で入金してください。アカウントに入金したら、このページに戻り、取引したい結果を選び、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックしてください。予測市場が初めての方は、Polymarketの任意のページ上部にある「仕組み」リンクをクリックして、ステップバイステップのガイドをご覧ください。
Polymarketでは、各結果の価格は市場の暗示確率を表します。「GPT-5.6 released by...?」市場における「July 24」の価格99¢は、トレーダーが「July 24」が正しい結果となる確率をおよそ99%と集合的に評価していることを意味します。99¢で「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が正しければ、シェアあたり$1.00を受け取ります。つまりシェアあたり1¢の利益です。正しくない場合、そのシェアは$0の価値になります。
「GPT-5.6 released by...?」市場はJul 30, 2026前後に決済される予定です。つまり、その日までは取引が可能で、オッズは新しい情報の出現に伴い変化し続けます。正確な決済タイミングは「ルール」セクションに記載されている通り、公式結果がいつ利用可能になるかによって異なります。
「GPT-5.6 released by...?」市場には51件のコメントによる活発なコミュニティがあり、トレーダーが分析を共有し、結果を議論し、最新の動向について話し合っています。下のコメントセクションまでスクロールして、他の参加者の意見を読んでください。「トップホルダー」でフィルタリングしたり、「アクティビティ」タブでリアルタイムの取引フィードを確認することもできます。
Polymarketは世界最大の予測市場で、現実世界のイベントについて最新情報を得て、知識から利益を得ることができます。トレーダーは政治や選挙から暗号通貨、金融、スポーツ、テクノロジー、文化まで幅広いトピックの結果のシェアを売買しています。「GPT-5.6 released by...?」のような市場も含まれます。価格は金融的確信に裏付けられたリアルタイムの確率を反映しており、世論調査、評論家、従来の調査よりも迅速で正確なシグナルを提供することがよくあります。
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問