Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to a peak of 36–38°C in Chengdu on August 12, driven by lingering subtropical high pressure that favors clear skies and strong daytime insolation over the Sichuan Basin. High humidity levels near 70 percent can limit further warming through reduced sensible heat flux, while variable convective timing—afternoon thundershowers versus delayed or absent cells—creates the narrow spread between 37°C and 38°C outcomes favored by traders. Basin topography traps heat in urban zones, and light winds minimize mixing, supporting the slight edge for the higher readings amid typical mid-August norms where extremes occasionally reach 39–40°C. Updated runs in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月12日の成都の最高気温は?
37°C 32%
38°C 28%
36°C 17%
39°C 13%
32°C or below
1%
33°C
4%
34°C
6%
35°C
9%
36°C
17%
37°C
32%
38°C
28%
39°C
13%
40°C
6%
41°C
5%
42°C or higher
<1%
37°C 32%
38°C 28%
36°C 17%
39°C 13%
32°C or below
1%
33°C
4%
34°C
6%
35°C
9%
36°C
17%
37°C
32%
38°C
28%
39°C
13%
40°C
6%
41°C
5%
42°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to a peak of 36–38°C in Chengdu on August 12, driven by lingering subtropical high pressure that favors clear skies and strong daytime insolation over the Sichuan Basin. High humidity levels near 70 percent can limit further warming through reduced sensible heat flux, while variable convective timing—afternoon thundershowers versus delayed or absent cells—creates the narrow spread between 37°C and 38°C outcomes favored by traders. Basin topography traps heat in urban zones, and light winds minimize mixing, supporting the slight edge for the higher readings amid typical mid-August norms where extremes occasionally reach 39–40°C. Updated runs in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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